The qualifying campaign for Euro 2008 resumes business again on Saturday, with another fixture next week. By next Wednesday night, some nations' hopes of a place in Austria and Switzerland will already be hanging by a thread. But not Scotland's.
Improbably, Saturday's game at Hampden Park is a clash between the 2 leaders of Group B. The expectation is that Scotland won't be at the sharp end of the table in a week's time. But, thanks to the 6 points picked up against the Faroes and Lithuania, they won't be out of the running either. However, any return from the games against France and the Ukraine would be very welcome indeed.
France are priced no better than 4-6 to win on Saturday, an indication of the tough task ahead of Scotland. What chance do they have of causing an upset?
Job no.1 will be defence. Walter Smith is a naturally cautious, pragmatic manager, and he will set Scotland up in a safety first formation, probably 5-3-2. With his assistant Tommy Burns saying a point would be a good return, and Steven Pressley saying they will need to play very deep to negate Thierry Henry's pace, the home team will be looking to camp out in their own half and invite France to try and break them down. There is no pace in Scotland's back line at all, so they cannot afford to let Henry have any space at all. If he breaks through them, he'll be gone. Scotland's defence will be very, very busy.
If this sounds scary, at least the Scottish tradition of quality goal keepers is being kept up by Craig Gordon. By far Hearts' best performer in their dismal European campaign, he is an excellent shot-stopper who has developed the welcome habit of pulling off stunning reflex saves. Much of Scotland's hopes rest on his shoulders.
At the other end of the park (y'know, the centre circle), Walter Smith has been moaning about Kenny Miller's suspension for a while now, and giving few clues about who's going to play instead. Kris Boyd seems the obvious choice, but if Smith doubts his workrate, expect a front 2 of Garry O'Connor and McFadden. Against centre-halfs of the quality of Thuram and Gallas, this pairing looks like struggling, but with Gallas an injury doubt there's a chance Boumsong could replace him. Fingers crossed.
Selection issues in the middle of the park were settled when Nigel Quashie got injured, allowing Barry Ferguson to stroll back into the team. Hopefully, he'll up his pace considerably once the whistle blows, because it's the midfield who'll determine whether Scotland can get a draw or a win. They'll need to cut off the supply line to Henry and whoever plays alongside him, and try and support the attack where possible. Darren Fletcher and Paul Hartley are the shoe-ins for the remaining places, and have shown some potential - Fletcher can graft, and Hartley can pass. Smith will also have options on the bench (notably Hib's Scott Brown) who will look to take opponents on.
For all the emphasis on defence, France will need to be put under pressure at times, if only to relieve the pressure and allow the backline to regain its shape.
It will be a tough ask. But not impossible. welovefitba prediction: 1-1 (Scotland's goal from a Hartley set-piece).
Friday, October 06, 2006
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