Celtic on course for the title, but Rangers still lacking direction

As 2006 comes to a close, Celtic can reflect on an exciting and successful year. While the team have been playing pants for weeks now, their current lack of form is a temporary blip, hugely outweighed by the positives. For their Glasgow rivals, however, the exact opposite is true - for Rangers, 2006 has been a low, low year, interspersed with the occasional high point.

17 points clear at the top of the SPL, Celtic know that the championship is as good as theirs, and it's very difficult to argue with back-to-back titles as convincing evidence for a team's dominance. They are still in the Champions League too, of course, and that is equally important, not least for the additional income it brings to the club.

What is really impressive is that all this has been done while the team has been rebuilt from end to end. A comparison between a typical team sheet from 3 years ago and one from this season illustrates the point. A long-term replacement for Neil Lennon is needed to anchor the midfield, but all else is much changed, with the average age (and average salary) of the squad considerably younger than it was. As has been pointed out here before, Strachan has enjoyed his fair slice of luck along the way, but he deserves credit for a good job so far. Today's signing of Steven Pressley on an 18-month contract will shore up the defence, too, which has conspicuously poor in recent weeks.

Paul Le Guen, on the other hand, still has much to prove, and there is a growing feeling that he's already blown it, just 6 months into the job. Many Rangers fans, and sections of the media, seem to have made their mind up already, and once that happens there is no way back. Take, as an example, the reported spat between Le Guen and his captain, Barry Ferguson, earlier in December. The story was an innocuos one - Le Guen believed the role of captain was considered less important in France than in Scotland - but it was spun as a major "row" between the pair, with the tabloid staples of "bust-ups" and "show-down talks" getting a tired airing.

Rangers have achieved some impressive results recently - wins over Hibs and Aberdeen, for example - but have capitulated far too often elsewhere. It suggests that Le Guen is having trouble motivating his team, and if that's the case he really is in trouble. Their backline remains a shambles, and the recent draw against Celtic was really anything to write home about. All in all, it's not been a happy conclusion to the year. Further progress in the UEFA Cup might buy some time for Le Guen, but he does look precarious. Chairman David Murray won't sack him yet, but if things get worse Le Guen could be jettisoned at the end of the season to deflect the wrath of the fans.

If any manager deserves to give himself a pat on the back, however, it is Jimmy Calderwood. Aberdeen have been solidly top 6 for the past couple of seasons, without really setting the heather on fire. This term, though, it seems to have clicked into place, and they are in 2nd on the table on merit.

There's a certain irony that this upturn in results has coincided with some serious belt-tightening, as the club has committed to finally get to grips with its debt. For much of the 90s, Aberdeen were spending beyond their means, and flirting with relegation. Now, taking the lead from others such as Hibernian in matching outgoings to income, they seem to have a new purpose about them. Long may it last, for Scottish football gained hugely from Alex Ferguson's belligerent Aberdeen of the 1980s, and needs some of that competitive spirit from the North East back again. There are, though, a couple of flies in the ointment. One is that Aberdeen have decided to move house to help clear those debts, selling Pittodrie for development. This is perhaps a problem for another day, as it's not scheduled to happen until 2008, but it's an interesting question as to what the capacity of the new stadium will be. The game against Rangers was a 22,000 sell-out, but they often struggle to get half that number through the gates. And that is a real problem, as Calderwood has admitted - without more ticket income, he's gonna struggle to hold his squad together.

The Entertainers from Edinburgh continued to live up to their reputation with another engrossing derby on Boxing Day, which Hearts eventually won 3-2 after Hibs had fought back from 2-0 down. These 2 clubs have lit up the SPL in 2006, Hearts grabbing headlines with their regular crises off the field as well as their football. Who knows if 2007 will bring stability to Tynecastle, or yet more trauma?

Hibs, meanwhile, have been scintillating at times this season, humiliating some of the SPL lower order, but they remain soft-centred and liable to concede cheap goals. They have also had to endure ongoing transfer speculation surrounding Kevin Thomson and Scott Brown, who may or may not be away in January. Their future, though, looks stable - debt is down, they are about to start building work at their new training ground, and John Collins has made an impressive start as manager.

Jim Jefferies has been at Kilmarnock a while now, but he continues to over-achieve with the resources at his disposal. Killie's great strength is that they always seem to compete, and - unlike Rangers, for example - don't switch off against the "smaller teams". This is the way to pick up points regularly, of course, but Killie's main hope of success this season is probably the League Cup.

Down in the bottom six, four teams have all arrived on 24 points. Falkirk and ICT can be reasonably satisfied with their seasons so far, while Motherwell and Dundee Utd have both recovered impressively from scary starts. Neither look in any danger from relegation this season, which wasn't the case a few months ago. Just two points adrift of this pack are St Mirren, who have gone in the opposite direction to the Well and the Arabs, fading after a strong start. But they'll probably be ok, too, because right at the bottom - and 8 points adrift - are poor old Dunfermline. They are going to need results to go their way quickly if they are going to avoid the drop.

So, there you go - half way through the season, we can pretty sure who's going to win the SPL and who is going down. But everything else is up to play for.