Monday, October 23, 2006

SPL quarter season round up

With 11 matches played, it's a good time to take stock of the season so far. All the teams in the 12-club SPL have played each other once, so they've all had the chance to size each other up. welovefitba's 1/4 season round up has been delayed by a day, for 2 reasons: Dunfermline and Hibs did not play until Monday night, and we were waiting for Hearts to sack Ivanauskas and appoint another new coach.

So, let's start at the bottom, where Dundee Utd and Dunfermline are locked together on 8 points. Dunfermline have the excuse of a long injury list at the beginning of the season, and no money. They have been hanging onto SPL status by their fingernails for a couple of years now, and it wouldn't be surprising if they drop through the floor at the end of this season. 5 years ago they were a tidy, effective team, and boss Jim Leishman loves the Pars more than life itself, so their fans might still hold out some hope that he can get the club to punch above its weight again. Their keeper Dorus De Vries, performed heroics against Hibs, but they still got thumped 0-4. It will be a long, long season for them.

It's hard to know where Dundee Utd fans can look for inspiration, though. They are a much bigger club, with much stronger resources, but they are in freefall. Craig Brewster is just the latest manager to try and turn things around, but he admitted at the weekend that relegation is now a real possibility, infuriating his chairman, Eddie Thompson. Again. (Thompson was overheard describing his manager in less than complimentary terms after the first game of the season). Brewster is a United fan, but he's drowning not waving, and as he said himself, 2 wins from 27 games tells its own story. That sound you hear is Thompson sharpening his blade.

Motherwell might be only 2 points above the gruesome twosome, but their form has improved markedly from an abject start to the season, and they should continue their recovery. Terry Butcher has proved a tough act to follow, but Maurice Malpas seems to be getting the hang of it now, and Motherwell have some decent players in an admittedly small squad.

Falkirk, on 11 points, have carried on much as they did last season. They are a tidy and compact side, and keep possession well. However, their home form has been very poor, with just one win all season, and they don't score enough goals. They will need to improve on both counts if they are to avoid getting sucked into a relegation dogfight.

St Mirren, 3 points above them, can have no complaints. Gus MacPherson has kept the Division 1 Champions in confident mood, and they should build on a solid start. The truth is that the bottom half of the SPL contains a few teams - yes you, Dundee Utd and Dunfermline - that are no better than those in the division below. Which is how clubs like St Mirren can get promoted, and then compete, with much the same squad. If they go back down this season, welovefitba will eat its (pixellated) hat.

Locked together on 15 points in 6th and 7th places, neatly straddling the top and bottom halves of the table, are Hibernian and Aberdeen, the two clubs who see their natural position as members of the elite, but often find themselves slumming it in less rarefied territory.

Aberdeen manager Jimmy Calderwood was extolling his team's exciting, attacking football at the weekend, with the club hoping more entertainment will get the punters through the turnstiles. Less than 11,000 turned up, however, many fans no doubt struggling to put the usual dour displays out of their mind. It would be a welcome change to see a more attack-minded Aberdeen having a go, but there's no guarantees it will last. A phrase about a leopard and his spots comes to mind.

Hibernian thumped Dunfermline in their Monday night encounter, teeing up the predictable question: imagine how good they'd be if they had a manager? No announcement has been made on Tony Mowbray's replacement yet, but it's no surprise the club are taking their time, because the new man has a tough brief. There's a lot to work with at Hibs, but the team developed a set way of playing under Mowbray - a sort of fluid 4-3-3/4-5-1 - and the fans won't want it to change. So, the new manager will need to improve consistency, while keeping the flair. It's anyone's guess what kind of season they might have.

Inverness Caledonian Thistle are in 5th, Charlie Christie doing an excellent job of maintaining the progress made by the previous manager, er, Craig Brewster. Who walked out on ICT to take up the Tannadice hot seat. Oops. More than any other manager, Christie will dread January, because his job is about keeping his squad together rather than adding to it, and a few of his players are coveted by others.

Jim Jefferies has been doing a fine job at Kilmarnock for so long now that it's easy to get complacent about them. In fact, the bigger clubs still have a complacent attitude towards their trips to Ayrshire, and then get humbled on the park (Hearts being merely the latest). Ultimately, the lack of resources have told in recent seasons, leaving Kilmarnock just short where it mattered. A top 6 club certainly, and there on merit, the next level would be a domestic cup or qualifying for European competition. They have a 3 point advantage over Hibs and Aberdeen as it stands, but these 3 will swap places all season long.

And so to the top 3. Paul le Guen has had a harrowing introduction to Scottish football, his nadir coming in the 1-0 loss to ICT a week ago, when his keeper's every touch was booed by their own fans (they were unhappy that MacGregor, who'd performed heroics in the UEFA cup, had been dropped to the bench). le Guen's favoured No.1 then made an absolute clanger and gifted ICT the 3 points, doing his boss no favours at all. Crucially, of course, Rangers are 10 points off Celtic already, but progress in the UEFA Cup has bought le Guen a bit of time. The SPL title might be beyond them already, but if he can show the team is progressing then the fans might put this season down to "rebuilding" and hope things improve next time around.

Le Guen's other big problem is Hearts. If they finish ahead of Rangers again, it will look less like a blip, and more like a trend, and that kind of decline simply won't be tolerated in the blue half of Glasgow. Hearts are certainly a better team than Rangers right now, and deserve to be ahead of them in the standings. Whether this continues is probably all down to Hearts, and how Romanov plots the remainder of this campaign.

He hasn't sacked Ivanauskas, but he might have broken him - he's been signed off sick for 2 weeks to try and recover his health. You have to feel sympathy for the intense Lithuanian: he's under huge pressure to deliver results, and under constant scrutiny from the media (he does not appear to enjoy the limelight) and yet he does not have the authority to pick the team to get those results. While he's away, Edouard Malofeev (job title: who knows?) takes care of team affairs.

Hearts have a lot in their favour, including a strong squad and some good players. Unfortunately, that same squad is far too big and unbalanced (8 strikers!) and the team selection beggars belief. The Scottish axis of Gordon-Pressley-Hartley is pretty constant, but the others positions are chopped and changed at wil. Romanov has a clear preference for blooding the young Lithuanians, but his selection policy has cost Hearts several points already, and arguably hampered their chances in their brief European campaign. If his plan is to grow Heart of Midlothian football club, results are surely paramount.

The leaders Celtic are still capable of turning in distinctly average performances, but Strachan has been lucky this term that it hasn't cost him. He has been rebuilding the squad since he joined in summer 2005, but it is now starting to gel, and should get more consistent as the team develops. The two centre backs, McManus and Caldwell, are starting to answer their many critics, Caldwell having also noticeably grown up through experience with the Scotland team. Up front, meanwhile, Jan Vennegor of Hesselink is finding Scottish football to his taste, and Kenny Miller, again helped by his heroics in a Scotland shirt, has put his early season goal drought behind him.

8 points clear at the top already, Celtic are looking good to retain their title.

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