SPL 2009/10 - how's it's going to pan out

The new SPL season is about to kick off, so it's time to put our money where our mouth is and predict who's going to win it... and where everyone else will finish too. Firstly, a health warning: with the transfer window still open until the end of August, there's still time for players to come and go. If Rangers, for example, decide to spend a little of their Champions League windfall (unlikely, we know), then they could still improve their chances of retaining the title.


But this is We Love Fitba's season preview:

1. Celtic will be champions. We might have got it wrong in backing them last season, but we'll do it again this time around. A new management team, new players and the breaking of their European away day hoodoo have all brought optimism to Parkhead this summer. That victory over Dinamo Moscow reinforced the feeling that Tony Mowbray is the right man at the right time, able to inject some verve and flair into the side. With Nakamura and JVH gone and a few new faces, Celtic have refreshed a decent squad and will play with more pace this term.
   
   Key man: Aiden McGeady. Looked like he was on the verge of leaving the club in January, the girl-faced Irishman is an unquestioned talent. If Mowbray can get him back to his best, Celtic will be too strong for everyone else.
   


2. Rangers. Celtic might have thrown away a position of strength last season but Rangers deserve credit for winning the title. Walter Smith has helped to keep the wolf from the door, but there are still clear financial problems at Ibrox. So far this summer, players have gone but none has arrived. Fans can reassure themselves that their club has probably got the best years out of Barry Ferguson, and Birmingham have done them a favour (cheers, Alex McLeish), while Charlie Adam and Alan Gow weren't involved last season anyhow. But Celtic have got stronger while Rangers have stagnated. The squad is looking too thin to defend their crown.
   
   Key man: Kevin Thomson. Talented but fragile, the oft-injured midfielder has a vital role to play this season. With Ferguson gone, Rangers need someone to anchor the midfield and control games. It's telling, though, that Thomson has barely played for Scotland, despite his talent - he needs a solid, uninterrupted season to make his mark.
   


3. Hearts. On the basis that they finished 3rd last time, and no one else looks better placed to challenge them, the "Best of the Rest" title is theirs by default. They have steadily improved throughout pre-season and they seem to have brought in some decent replacements to cover departures. But Bruno Aiguar will be a big loss, and they still need a decent striker. And of course, the swirling rumours about financial problems and Vladimir Romanov's crazy unpredictability threaten to capsize the boat at any moment. Hearts better hope that Lithuanian bank holds out, because it's the only thing stopping them from following Livingston into crisis.
   
   Key man: Andy Driver. If Hearts continue to play with a fence post upfront, then the winger's attacking threat will be even more vital. An injury during the summer probably rules out his transfer this summer, a boost for the team if not the bank balance back in Vilnius. He could well go in January, though.



4. Hibernian. Another new manager for Hibs, and one that Falkirk fans weren't exactly sorry to see go. John Hughes certainly likes his teams to play well, but his results at Falkirk, plus the sales of Rob Jones and Steven Fletcher, suggest little more than top-6 anonymity this time around. However, there is a feeling, just like Mowbray at Celtic, that Hughes is the right man for the job, and that this appointment could work out very well indeed. After all, it was Hughes who got Falkirk to the SPL and kept them there, and got them to the Scottish Cup Final in May as well. He seems to know what's doing, and his roots with the club are doing him no harm at all. And, of course, the Hibs academy just keeps on churning out promising looking players, seven of whom have been promoted to the senior squad.
   
   Key man: Merouane Zemmama. Hibs will still rely on prodigal son Derek Riordan to score the goals, but it's the little Morrocan who Hughes will build his team around. If it works, Hibs could be looking to take 3rd from Hearts.



5. Dundee Utd. As Director of Football, Craig Levein has been busy restructuring the club's academy, admitting that it was not fulfilling its function. A smart move, but not one that's going to have an immediate impact on the first team. As manager, Levein once again traded to try and replace decent players who have gone. The Arabs will be tough competitors but it's hard to see them improve much on last season.
   
   Key man: Morgaro Gomis. That Levein signed the Senegalese midfielder from Cowbenbeath shows the global reach of the game these days. That Roy Keane has offered £800,000 for him shows yet again Levein's eye for a player. With money tight, though, can they hold on to him?
   
   
6. Motherwell. New man, fresh ideas, and a few new faces from the English lower leagues for fans to get used to as well. Jim Gannon is by all accounts a talented manager, and - crucially - used to operating at the "value" end of the transfer market. Motherwell have sold most of their assets and need a manager who can spot a bargain, but Gannon also likes his teams to pass the ball, which the Well fans will lap up. This just could be an inspired appointment.
   
   Key man: Stephen Craigan. With all the youthful enthusiasm ahead of him, the Well skipper could do with a nice, consistent, mistake-free season to show leadership to the young charges and keep the goals against tally respectable.
   
   
7. Aberdeen. The Dons were delighted to get Mark McGhee, who of course was part of the increasingly distant mid-80s glory years, after becoming so exasperated with the two Jimmys. But they've lost Scott Severin and Jamie Smith, the squad looks thin, and pre-season has not gone well. Without more investment, Aberdeen have to be realistic about their prospects. And could it be that Messrs Calderwood and Nicholl actually knew what they were doing? This season may be one to forget for the Dons, while inertia elsewhere leaves the club in seemingly perpetual limbo, wondering whether they are going to leave Pittodrie or not.
   
   Key man: Zander Diamond. Without a prolific striker, Aberdeen need to be tight at the back. Diamond's progress has been erratic but he's shown signs of maturing into a consistent centre-half.
   
   
8. Kilmarnock. Everyone knows that Killie don't have a pot to piss in, and the last couple of seasons have had fans biting fingernails at some point as relegation fears bubble up again at Rugby Park. But Jim Jefferies knows what he's doing and Killie also have the habit of stringing a set of results together when needed. Given the circumstances, they've done well to keep the squad more or less together and - you never know - Mark Burchill might announce his return to Scottish football with goals aplenty. Or not.
   
   Key man: Mehdi Taouil. The Morocco midfielder has tricks and talent, and is just plain good. He should be the difference between Kilmarnock and the teams below them.
   
   
9. St Johnstone. Gretna apart, the promoted club has tended to survive their first season in the SPL, and St Johnstone should do at least that. A well-run club with a solid support, the Saints have been waiting to get back to the top flight for a long time, and finally have their chance. Manager Derek McInnes is both realistic and ambitious, a nice combination to have. They've added a bit of depth to a squad that already looked pretty solid.
   
   Key man: Paul Sheerin. Craft and invention in Perth.
   
   
10. St Mirren. They've not been in the SPL long enough to feel completely secure, but the Buddies should be ok in their first full season in their new home. Gus MacPherson seems to have strengthened the squad, with Michael Higdon from Falkirk earmarked as the man to help score more goals than last season.
    
    Key man: Andy Dorman. Struggled last term, but if he returns to his best then he will make the Buddies tick.
    
    
11. Hamilton. Second Season Syndrome might hit hard at Hamilton, especially having seen James McCarthy and Brian Easton go for big money down South. But Billy Reid has been given some of that cash to rebuild the squad, and has made some big changes to freshen things up. More youthful exuberance/naivety this time around, but it should still be enough.
    
    Key man: Tomas Cerny. To balance out all that youthful inconsistently, an experienced pro between the sticks. A good keeper makes the difference, you know.
    
    
12. Falkirk. Apologies to the Bairns, but their time might be up. Escaped relegation on the last day of last season, and while Eddie May talks a good game (and has the odd pop at previous gaffer John Hughes while he's at it), he also lacks experience. The fans seem optimistic, though, so they won't be bothered by others backing them for the drop.
    
    Key man: Danijel Marceta. The striker has been signed on loan from FK Partizan's academy, which sounds like plenty enough pedigree for the SPL. If he's another Anthony Stokes, then Falkirk may well be laughing in the face of relegation threats.