Stumbles of the also-rans

The SPL split has not been universally liked since its introduction, but it does add interest as the clubs move towards the end of the season.

If the first half of this campaign was all about the narrowing of the gap between the Old Firm and the rest, the second half has asked some serious questions about those pretenders to the crown. And in most cases, they are falling flat.

Hibs boss John Hughes made 3rd place an explicit target - and they are now in 5th.

Aberdeen have been inconsistent all season, so it was no surprise that just as Mark McGhee expressed the opinion that the top six was still possible, they lost to St Johnstone to make that target look very remote.

And Hearts continue in the same vein - returning Jambo Jim Jefferies was bold enough to tell us all that Mister Romanov was very happy with progress so far... and his club celebrated by capitulating to Motherwell.

Ah, Motherwell, who are now fourth, on the back of an impressive run masterminded by wily pensioner Craig Brown. Unlikely as it seemed a few months ago, you can't now rule them out for third spot.

That depends on Dundee Utd, of course, who alone amongst this gang have shown consistency all season - all the more impressive given that Craig Levein left half way through.

To really shake up the SPL, it needs not only the Old Firm to reign in their previous excesses, but at least a couple of the others to shake off previous bad habits and put a sustained challenge together. If Motherwell and the Arabs are fighting for third, then you have to say that better-resourced clubs like Hibs and Aberdeen are falling short.

Dons adrift

If it's now a certainty that Celtic have blown the SPL this season, it's almost as certain that Aberdeen won't even make the top six. Mark McGhee has said as much himself. They are now eight points adrift of sixth place Hearts, and surely won't make up that deficit before the split.

The Dons were simply awful on Saturday. For periods of the game their players were absolutely static, neither closing down Hearts when defending, or showing any invention or energy when in possession.

The goal that decided the match - an overhead effort from Eggert Jonsson - really had no place in such a drab encounter, but then Aberdeen can have no complaints. And considering that Hearts weren't all that good, and had Larry Kingston sent off after an hour, that is a damning verdict on their performance.

Where do Aberdeen go from here? Fewer than 9,000 bothered turning up for this one, and the gate will probably drop even further for the rest of the season. Yet the support's indifference is more than matched by the club - they have a manager who openly covets the Celtic job, and an owner who won't or can't outline a plan to take Aberdeen forward.

Instead, they just drift, like a supply ship that's run out of diesel on the North Sea. It's not doing Aberdeen, or Scottish football, any favours at all.

Aberdeen 0-1 Raith

It's not looking good up in Aberdeen tonight. Dumped out of the Scottish Cup in tonight's replay against Raith Rovers, Mark McGhee and his team were booed off the pitch, and worse, with reports of fans throwing scarves and spitting at the manager as he went up the tunnel.

The club's season is all but over. It would take a minor miracle to haul themselves up into a European finish in the SPL now, and given Aberdeen's bi-polar form, that's not going to happen.

Aberdeen have been often brilliant on the road this season, but fragile at home. Last saturday's draw against Celtic at Pittodrie could have been a turning point, but clearly it wasn't. Mark McGhee was honest enough to admit that Raith Rovers deserved the win tonight - his team just didn't turn up.

Aberdeen's poor cup run is nothing new, of course. It was their failure to get within sight of domestic silverware which finally did for Jimmy Calderwood. And the longer it goes on, the worse it gets. When expected to perform, the Dons wilt, especially against lower league opposition.

In the circumstances, the crowds are likely to tail off, leaving the team to see out the season in front of a half-empty Pittodrie. McGhee will know that his budget for next season - already seriously restricted - will be even tighter now. And without money, how can he afford to rebuild the squad?

Mark McGhee "clarifies" his stance

Previewing this weekend's tie against St Johnstone, Mark McGhee has had a go at explaining his complaints about the refereeing of the Hibs game.

No, he hasn't read the now infamous article on the Dons' website, accusing the ref of being the "12th" man.

No, he didn't think either sending off was wrong... just maybe a little harsh.

No, he didn't think Murray's tackle on Fraser Fyvie was illegal... just "over-robust".

Hmm. So the refereee got nothing wrong and McGhee had nothing to do with the offending article. Sounds like a man who realises he's been a bit foolish and is trying to talk his way out of trouble...

Aberdeen moaning - Part 2

No chance of Aberdeen coming to their senses, unfortunately.

According to this article in the Press & Journal, Mark McGhee is "seething" at Ian Murray's tackle on Fraser Fyvie that has left the teenager with ankle knack.

Again, the response is easy - watch the incident again. Was it illegal? No. Did Murray win the ball? Emphatically. Did he touch Fyvie? No. How did Fyvie injure himself? By landing heavily - unlucky, but these things happen.

Ian Murray has defended himself in the Evening News, and is entitled to be seething himself for being criticised by an opposition manager for a tough but fair challenge.

As the fall out from the match continues, there is a general feeling in Leith that McGhee set his team up for a physical confrontation, hoping to find Hibs a soft touch. As the plan backfired, he has tried to deflect any potential criticism from the defeat by criticising the referee and Hibs themselves.

Perhaps he should choose his battles more carefully?

Aberdeen lose their heads

Mark McGhee does seem to like a moan. He was complaining about a lack of resources almost as soon as he was in the door at Aberdeen, and he was moaning again following his side's 2-0 defeat against Hibs at the weekend.

Well, ok. Managers of the losing team often sound off after the final whistle, caught up in the frustration and disappointment of a poor result. McGhee felt that his club had been unfairly treated by the referee, who sent off both Maurice Ross and Chris Maguire while the game was still scoreless, handing a huge advantage to Hibs. Perhaps, once he had seen the game again, he might realise that he had got it wrong?

Nope. Instead of spending the weekend reflecting on things, Aberdeen FC instead released an unattributed but utterly idiotic statement on Monday, berating the referee for being "hell-bent" on sending players off, and "cheating the fans who pay good money to watch a competitive and balanced encounter".

Interesting, then, that the statement refuses to mention any specific incident in the game that treated Aberdeen unfairly. Why? Because they are plain wrong.

Maurice Ross was sent off for collecting two yellow cards for fouls on Ian Murray and Derek Riordan. The second was perhaps a little soft, but he undeniably had a swipe at Riordan, not the ball, and cannot have any complaint.

Chris Maguire's stamp on Kevin McBride, on the other hand, deserved the straight red he received. If you have any doubts about it, watch the incident again. McBride was lucky not to break a metatarsal or two.

No such luck for Fraser Fyvie, who's out for six weeks with ankle trouble - ironically, caused by a clean but strong tackle by Ian Murray, who had an eventful game, all told.

Winners and losers so far in the SPL

So... the transfer window has shut, we're three games in... who's hot and who's not in the SPL this term?

Looking Good...

Rangers have avoided any more departures, and that's a good thing for them. The income from the Champions League (they don't have to share any of it with Celtic now) will help with the cash flow at least, and the arrival of Jerome Rothen on loan from PSG adds experience and guile for those ties too.

Given that they are not even offering new contracts to anyone currently on the payroll (Kris Boyd is now in his final year), don't expect much business in January either, unless they sell first. They remain dependent on a few key players staying fit - otherwise, that title looks very vulnerable. For now, though, the Champions have made an impressive start.

A year ago, Derek Riordan returned to Hibs from Celtic for a rumoured £400,000 (big money these days for a non-OF outfit), and the Edinburgh club's chief executive described the deal as a "statement of intent". This summer, they've invested a similar sum in Anthony Stokes. Hibs now have lots of options up front and John Hughes has done some fairly radical reshaping of the rest of the squad, with Liam Miller the latest to join. It might take time to gel, but Hibs are looking promising.

So are the Arabs, with Craig Levein again pulling a rabbit out of the hat with Danny Cadamateri. Who knows how, but the well-travelled and wayward striker has hit the ground running. Dundee Utd have started well and still have a number of injured players to come back into the team. These two clubs are surely favourites for third place.

Motherwell will be pretty happy with a top six finish, but that looks on the cards following a decent start. Jim Gannon is living up to his reputation, and he's been given some money to bring in much needed strength in depth.

St. Johnstone, meanwhile, managed well-earned draws against Motherwell and Hearts, but got thumped by Celtic. That's a tough start for a promoted team, even if Hearts aren't anywhere near as good as they'd like to be, so probably a job well done. And they are scoring goals, which is crucial for the confidence.

Steady as she goes...

Neither wonderful nor woeful, St Mirren and Kilmarnock have both made respectable starts, and have legitimate reasons for optimism. As both clubs are vulnerable to being dragged into a relegation scrap, any early points are a bonus.

Early signs of shakiness...

After being dumped out of the Champions League, there were rumours that a few Celtic players might be on their way, but in the end they've all stayed. Things should be pretty peachy at Parkhead, yet somehow problems seem to be surfacing early in Tony Mowbray's tenure. The bad natured and narrow win at Hibs looked ugly, with Mowbray first orchestrating a "huddle" at the end of the game and then refusing to accept that McGeady dived (he did, and everyone knows it). A siege mentality at the end of August - is that really healthy?

Still, at least they are winning games, which is more than can be said for Hearts. Manager Csaba Laszlo has been spilling the beans about his difficult relationship with Vladimir, and we all know that Mr Romanov does not tolerate insubordination. Is his employee asking to get sacked? Hearts had a woeful summer, the new signings (much hyped by some supporters) have looked substandard so far, and Larry Kingston is stirring the pot, too. Oh dear.

Things aren't much happier at Aberdeen, where the manager also seems content to moan about his squad in public. Best get your excuses in now, Mark McGhee, because those fans who were so excited about your arrival in the summer might just be having second thoughts.

And so to Hamilton and Falkirk. Both managers were sounding very optimistic during the summer, but that optimism has looked seriously misplaced so far. Falkirk have, at least, held on to Darren Barr and Scott Arfield, two vital players. They are going to need them, while Hamilton look well short of the required standard.

SPL 2009/10 - how's it's going to pan out

The new SPL season is about to kick off, so it's time to put our money where our mouth is and predict who's going to win it... and where everyone else will finish too. Firstly, a health warning: with the transfer window still open until the end of August, there's still time for players to come and go. If Rangers, for example, decide to spend a little of their Champions League windfall (unlikely, we know), then they could still improve their chances of retaining the title.


But this is We Love Fitba's season preview:

1. Celtic will be champions. We might have got it wrong in backing them last season, but we'll do it again this time around. A new management team, new players and the breaking of their European away day hoodoo have all brought optimism to Parkhead this summer. That victory over Dinamo Moscow reinforced the feeling that Tony Mowbray is the right man at the right time, able to inject some verve and flair into the side. With Nakamura and JVH gone and a few new faces, Celtic have refreshed a decent squad and will play with more pace this term.
   
   Key man: Aiden McGeady. Looked like he was on the verge of leaving the club in January, the girl-faced Irishman is an unquestioned talent. If Mowbray can get him back to his best, Celtic will be too strong for everyone else.
   


2. Rangers. Celtic might have thrown away a position of strength last season but Rangers deserve credit for winning the title. Walter Smith has helped to keep the wolf from the door, but there are still clear financial problems at Ibrox. So far this summer, players have gone but none has arrived. Fans can reassure themselves that their club has probably got the best years out of Barry Ferguson, and Birmingham have done them a favour (cheers, Alex McLeish), while Charlie Adam and Alan Gow weren't involved last season anyhow. But Celtic have got stronger while Rangers have stagnated. The squad is looking too thin to defend their crown.
   
   Key man: Kevin Thomson. Talented but fragile, the oft-injured midfielder has a vital role to play this season. With Ferguson gone, Rangers need someone to anchor the midfield and control games. It's telling, though, that Thomson has barely played for Scotland, despite his talent - he needs a solid, uninterrupted season to make his mark.
   


3. Hearts. On the basis that they finished 3rd last time, and no one else looks better placed to challenge them, the "Best of the Rest" title is theirs by default. They have steadily improved throughout pre-season and they seem to have brought in some decent replacements to cover departures. But Bruno Aiguar will be a big loss, and they still need a decent striker. And of course, the swirling rumours about financial problems and Vladimir Romanov's crazy unpredictability threaten to capsize the boat at any moment. Hearts better hope that Lithuanian bank holds out, because it's the only thing stopping them from following Livingston into crisis.
   
   Key man: Andy Driver. If Hearts continue to play with a fence post upfront, then the winger's attacking threat will be even more vital. An injury during the summer probably rules out his transfer this summer, a boost for the team if not the bank balance back in Vilnius. He could well go in January, though.



4. Hibernian. Another new manager for Hibs, and one that Falkirk fans weren't exactly sorry to see go. John Hughes certainly likes his teams to play well, but his results at Falkirk, plus the sales of Rob Jones and Steven Fletcher, suggest little more than top-6 anonymity this time around. However, there is a feeling, just like Mowbray at Celtic, that Hughes is the right man for the job, and that this appointment could work out very well indeed. After all, it was Hughes who got Falkirk to the SPL and kept them there, and got them to the Scottish Cup Final in May as well. He seems to know what's doing, and his roots with the club are doing him no harm at all. And, of course, the Hibs academy just keeps on churning out promising looking players, seven of whom have been promoted to the senior squad.
   
   Key man: Merouane Zemmama. Hibs will still rely on prodigal son Derek Riordan to score the goals, but it's the little Morrocan who Hughes will build his team around. If it works, Hibs could be looking to take 3rd from Hearts.



5. Dundee Utd. As Director of Football, Craig Levein has been busy restructuring the club's academy, admitting that it was not fulfilling its function. A smart move, but not one that's going to have an immediate impact on the first team. As manager, Levein once again traded to try and replace decent players who have gone. The Arabs will be tough competitors but it's hard to see them improve much on last season.
   
   Key man: Morgaro Gomis. That Levein signed the Senegalese midfielder from Cowbenbeath shows the global reach of the game these days. That Roy Keane has offered £800,000 for him shows yet again Levein's eye for a player. With money tight, though, can they hold on to him?
   
   
6. Motherwell. New man, fresh ideas, and a few new faces from the English lower leagues for fans to get used to as well. Jim Gannon is by all accounts a talented manager, and - crucially - used to operating at the "value" end of the transfer market. Motherwell have sold most of their assets and need a manager who can spot a bargain, but Gannon also likes his teams to pass the ball, which the Well fans will lap up. This just could be an inspired appointment.
   
   Key man: Stephen Craigan. With all the youthful enthusiasm ahead of him, the Well skipper could do with a nice, consistent, mistake-free season to show leadership to the young charges and keep the goals against tally respectable.
   
   
7. Aberdeen. The Dons were delighted to get Mark McGhee, who of course was part of the increasingly distant mid-80s glory years, after becoming so exasperated with the two Jimmys. But they've lost Scott Severin and Jamie Smith, the squad looks thin, and pre-season has not gone well. Without more investment, Aberdeen have to be realistic about their prospects. And could it be that Messrs Calderwood and Nicholl actually knew what they were doing? This season may be one to forget for the Dons, while inertia elsewhere leaves the club in seemingly perpetual limbo, wondering whether they are going to leave Pittodrie or not.
   
   Key man: Zander Diamond. Without a prolific striker, Aberdeen need to be tight at the back. Diamond's progress has been erratic but he's shown signs of maturing into a consistent centre-half.
   
   
8. Kilmarnock. Everyone knows that Killie don't have a pot to piss in, and the last couple of seasons have had fans biting fingernails at some point as relegation fears bubble up again at Rugby Park. But Jim Jefferies knows what he's doing and Killie also have the habit of stringing a set of results together when needed. Given the circumstances, they've done well to keep the squad more or less together and - you never know - Mark Burchill might announce his return to Scottish football with goals aplenty. Or not.
   
   Key man: Mehdi Taouil. The Morocco midfielder has tricks and talent, and is just plain good. He should be the difference between Kilmarnock and the teams below them.
   
   
9. St Johnstone. Gretna apart, the promoted club has tended to survive their first season in the SPL, and St Johnstone should do at least that. A well-run club with a solid support, the Saints have been waiting to get back to the top flight for a long time, and finally have their chance. Manager Derek McInnes is both realistic and ambitious, a nice combination to have. They've added a bit of depth to a squad that already looked pretty solid.
   
   Key man: Paul Sheerin. Craft and invention in Perth.
   
   
10. St Mirren. They've not been in the SPL long enough to feel completely secure, but the Buddies should be ok in their first full season in their new home. Gus MacPherson seems to have strengthened the squad, with Michael Higdon from Falkirk earmarked as the man to help score more goals than last season.
    
    Key man: Andy Dorman. Struggled last term, but if he returns to his best then he will make the Buddies tick.
    
    
11. Hamilton. Second Season Syndrome might hit hard at Hamilton, especially having seen James McCarthy and Brian Easton go for big money down South. But Billy Reid has been given some of that cash to rebuild the squad, and has made some big changes to freshen things up. More youthful exuberance/naivety this time around, but it should still be enough.
    
    Key man: Tomas Cerny. To balance out all that youthful inconsistently, an experienced pro between the sticks. A good keeper makes the difference, you know.
    
    
12. Falkirk. Apologies to the Bairns, but their time might be up. Escaped relegation on the last day of last season, and while Eddie May talks a good game (and has the odd pop at previous gaffer John Hughes while he's at it), he also lacks experience. The fans seem optimistic, though, so they won't be bothered by others backing them for the drop.
    
    Key man: Danijel Marceta. The striker has been signed on loan from FK Partizan's academy, which sounds like plenty enough pedigree for the SPL. If he's another Anthony Stokes, then Falkirk may well be laughing in the face of relegation threats.

Aberdeen hit the floor

So far this season, Aberdeen have performed as well as banking stocks. The most recent shock - a 2-1 home defeat to Hibs - sent them tumbling to the foot of the SPL. It's still early days, of course, and everyone expects them to recover sooner or later. But, as with Spurs in England, it's never too early in football for the word "crisis" to be dusted off again. We just love it.

How bad things get depends on how Aberdeen respond, of course, and the reaction from the weekend suggests that the current set up at Pittodrie still has it within themselves to pull away from the foot of the table. They were certainly unlucky to lose, with Hibs needing a hugely debatable goal to take the points.

But plenty of the fans aren't happy. There's no love lost between Jimmy Calderwood and a sizeable section of the support, sick with the "tactical tombola" and what's perceived as his moaning ways. Not to mention his tango tan, of course. We love fitba's got a lot of time for Calderwood to be honest - he did fine things at Dunfermline and has broadly done a good job at Aberdeen - but his undisguised ambition can, at times, come across as arrogance.

Mostly though, Calderwood seems to get the blame for the "sleeping giant" status of Aberdeen football club. They fans may claim they've stopped going on about the 1980s, but the club's achievements will be measured against the Alex Ferguson era for a while yet. Nowadays, Aberdeen are heavily in debt, and wondering whether or not to move out of their half-full stadium. Given the current state of the economy, this stasis will probably remain for a while yet.

It's a great shame, because if this one-city club re-established itself as a credible force, Scottish football would be much richer for it.

SPL predictions 08/09

The 08/09 SPL season starts tomorrow, so it's time for we love fitba to stick it's neck out again. No comprehensive preview here - just opinion - but if it's facts you're after, the Beeb have come up with a pretty comprehensive preview this time around

Alternatively, Inside Left have previewed all the weekend's games, and have got more predictions on their site too.

So here's how its' gonna pan out:

1. Celtic, obviously. 3 in a row, and although they were very, very lucky last time, they should have enough in the tank to make it 4. Strachan has won over more of the doubters with that last-gasp title clincher, by proving that even if some of the fans don't believe in him, his players surely do. Holding onto McGeady and Boruc will help, as will the form of Hartley and Robson at the end of last season. Surely Celtic will have a more coherent midfield this season?

The only doubts might arise if Celtic get into a European final, and become as distracted as Rangers did. But it's looking good for the team in green.

2. Rangers. What is Watty Smith up to? He had lots of strikers, so he's gone and bought 3 more, yet forgotten about his midfield entirely. Madjid Bougherra is presumably a replacement for Cuellar. It may all make sense come the end of August (will Real Madrid panic buy Lee McCulloch for £30m to get over being jilted by Ronaldo) but it doesn't right now.

3. Dundee Utd. Craig Levein is not just the manager at Tannadice, but he sits on the board too. The trust he enjoys there seems to be transmitted to his players, and he's done well in the transfer market, getting Willo Flood to return for another season's loan and strengthening upfront to make up for Noel Hunt's departure. Good work.

4. Hibs. Everyone's written off Hibs, who have had a shocking pre-season. Yet radgy manager Mixu Paatelainen has already shown he can mix it in the SPL, with decent results if not performances. Now he needs to step up, by proving he can beat the Old Firm occasionally as well, and get the team playing better football. He's not a great tactician, mind.

5. Motherwell. Did brilliantly by finishing 3rd last season, but the squad looks weaker without Ross McCormack, and manager Mark McGhee is not known for his consistency.

6. Falkirk. Slowly, slowly inching their way up the League, and play decent football too. This could be their season to break into the top 6. Their worry will be that another club finally realises what a fine job John Hughes is doing, and nicks the gaffer.

7. Aberdeen. Some characteristic wheeling and dealing from Jimmy Calderwood this season, but hard to say if the squad is any better. And the fans really don't like him at all, despite the UEFA Cup heroics last season. The wheels might be about to come off.

8. Hearts. They might have a manager at long last, but they've only made one signing so far, and that's just not enough. All the talk of unity and togetherness just rings a little hollow, too... this is Hearts we're talking about, after all. Expect the next crisis sometime before November, as Vlad re-asserts his authority and starts faxing through the team sheets again. Jambos believing that they are going to finish 3rd are living in dreamland.

9. Kilmarnock. Shocking last season, but the shock should jolt them into a (slight) improvement this time around.

10. St Mirren. Steady as she goes at Love St. Wait, not Love St, that'll be a building site come the end of the season.

11. Hamilton. They're young, untested at this level, and should go straight back down again. But that's no fun! Let's go crazy and predict a stirring start for the new boys, until reality and injuries kick in and they sink to a still-respectable finish.

12. Inverness Caley Thistle. Really not great last season, and with Niculae gone, it can only get worse. Will be hoping that Hamilton get put in their place early on.

Rangers still hoping for a party

As things stand, Manchester Utd won't be allowed to parade the Champions League trophy from the top deck of a bus. The trouble in the streets following the UEFA Cup final has scuppered that idea. It would be ironic, no, if Rangers find themselves driving around Govan in the next few days, with potentially 3 domestic trophies to show off.

So to tonight's decider, with Rangers off to Aberdeen and Celtic at Tannadice. A helicopter will be hovering above the North East, ready to swoop down with the trophy as soon as the destination of the title is decided.

We love fitba declared for Rangers some weeks ago, back when they had a 7 point lead, 1 game in hand, and looked unassailable. This may have been premature. Their subsequent wobble (and Celtic's 6 wins in a row) has put the ugly sisters level on points, but Celtic's superior goal difference makes them favourites.

Of course, everyone's assuming Aberdeen and Dundee Utd will just roll over and get beat, but Craig Levein has been particularly outspoken on this issue. Jimmy Calderwood may struggle to motivate a squad he has publicly criticised more than once, but the Arabs are making all the right noises about putting up a fight.

If that happens, Celtic could find themselves with the trickier encounter this evening. And Rangers could still win the title. We've not got it wrong yet.

Fury as Aberdeen implode

What is it with the Scottish Cup? As soon as the authorities starting talking about taking away the automatic UEFA Cup place from the runners-up, as has been done when the winners have already qualified for Europe through the League, than the competition seems determined to throw lambs to the slaughter.

First off Gretna, who lost on penalties to Hearts in the 2006 final, and then were into the UEFA Cup, distracted (their minds were on a promotion push from Division 1) and quickly found out. Then Dunfermline, runners-up last year, went to Europe having been relegated from the SPL, and with the best will in the world, were not well prepared for it. And, come late summer, it's very possible that it will be Queen of the South who take up the mantle of representing Scottish football in Europe.

Yup, Queen of the South are through to their first Scottish Cup final. Congratulations to them - they deserve it - but it has to be said that Aberdeen threw it away. Calamity defending allowed QoS to score 3 times. Aberdeen hauled themselves level each time, but then QoS scored a 4th and Aberdeen had no reply.

Jimmy Calderwood, the Dons manager, is as passionate about the Scottish Cup as anyone, but he's also a brutally honest manager who calls it how he sees it. He was scathing about his team's performance after the game, almost lost for words as he attempted to explain how bad they were. Chick Young, the Beeb's man at Hampden, gave him a route to defend himself by reminding Calderwood that his team created further chances to level the match, but he wouldn't take them.

"We got what we deserved. Losing 4 goals... is a joke. We brought 14,000 people here. We let them down at Tynecastle in the CIS Cup and we've let them down again."

You could hear the man's hurt in his voice, but who knows if it will be enough to repair the damage. Much like Gordon Strachan at Celtic, Calderwood has plenty of critics on the terraces, and this latest blow has opened torrents of abuse across fans' messageboards. The fans have had enough of the "tactical tombola" (endless personnel changes) and reckon plenty of the signings just aren't good enough.

The strange truth is that Calderwood agrees with them, and the one certainty is that there will be a clear-out at Pittodrie this summer. Calderwood has said before that some players just aren't up to the task, and earlier in the season hinted that he might well leave if he doesn't get a big enough budget to rebuild the squad.

He was persuaded to stay, and Director of Football Willie Miller remains supportive in public, but the man who will decide the budget is chairman Stewart Milne, the construction mogul, and there are no guarantees he'll come up with the goods. Milne is seemingly filthy rich, but has so far been reluctant to pump more of his own cash into the side. To be fair, you can see why - the stadium issue remains unclear, the club is millions in the red, and the fans have, on the most part, been staying away. As an investment opportunity, the club hardly looks gilt-edged.

It would be tempting to describe Aberdeen as a sleeping giant, although it's hard to know if they qualify as being a giant anymore. The Alex Ferguson era is a very long time ago now, and it becomes harder and harder imagining Aberdeen ascending to those heights again.

Calderwood might decide he's taken the club as far as he can. Or that decision might be made for him. Either way, it will be a critical summer for AFC.

Dons dreaming of silverware

There isn't a happier man in Scotland today than Jimmy Calderwood. They say that to truly appreciate the highs, you have to experience the lows, and the Aberdeen manager can certainly claim to have had more than his fair share of bad days this season.

Consider this: after finishing 3rd and qualifying for the UEFA Cup last season, Calderwood lost some vital members of his squad and went hunting in the sales for some bargains. He had mixed results, and this term Aberdeen are currently languishing down in 8th place and struggling to make the top 6 before the split.

If Aberdeen do play out their final round of fixtures in the bottom half of the table, it will reduce the crowds still further, the fans already hacked off by lack of investment from the chairman, indifferent performances, and the "tactical tombola" which made it impossible to predict the line-up and system from week to week.

The criticism has hurt Calderwood, who has long felt under-appreciated in Scotland, aware that he is no longer a young, up and coming manager, but one whose career has not reached the heights he had hoped for. This season, he has felt let down by the board and let down by his squad. First he threatened to leave if not given certain assurances about his budget. More recently, he threatened a mass clear-out at the end of the season, saying that some of his players "weren't as good as they thought they were".

In contrast, the UEFA Cup campaign was generally regarded as a success, its high point coming when Aberdeen held Bayern Munich 2-2 at a rocking Pittodrie, reminding everyone of the passion the club can generate when circumstances are right. That evening was one to be cherished, though, because Aberdeen then got spanked in Munich, ending the adventure in no uncertain terms.

And then to the Scottish Cup, a competition that Calderwood reveres. Aberdeen were minutes from a shock win over Celtic, before a late equaliser took them to a replay in Glasgow. Calderwood seemed crushed - Aberdeen's chance had surely gone.

So it seemed last night, as the first half was pretty much one way traffic, with Celtic on the attack and Aberdeen on the rocks. Calderwood may be a passionate and animated character on the touchline, but this masks a surprisingly reflective and observant side to his personality, and he was honest enough to admit that Aberdeen "rode their luck at times". Yet the luck held out, and a rare attack in the 68th minute yielded the only goal of the game, as Darren Mackie put Celtic out.

Aberdeen's prize is a semi-final against 1st Division Queen of the South, who are combative but limited. Aberdeen are clear favourites to go through, probably to meet Rangers in the final, assuming they dispose of Partick Thistle and then St Johnstone.

To lift the Cup, then, Aberdeen will probably have to beat both sides of the Old Firm. Not easy. But what an opportunity.

After missing out on Euro 2008, can Scotland make it to the next World Cup?

Football doesn't allow much time to dwell and reflect anymore. Scotland may have only played their last Euro 2008 qualifying game a week ago, but already it's time to forget about the disappointment of that game and look ahead. Club supporters are already immersed in the domestic season again, while today's 2010 World Cup qualifying draw gives a chance to focus on the next challenge.

It's hardly an easy draw, but it could have been worse. Scotland are in the only group with 5 members instead of six, and will face Holland, Norway, Iceland and Macedonia. The route to qualification goes like this - secure the maximum 12 points against the two weakest nations, share the points with Holland, and two wins against Norway should do the job. Easy, eh?!

Of course, what no one yet knows is whether Alec McLeish will still be in charge of the side. The Scottish Football Association want him to stay, not surprising given that he's got Scotland playing their best football for a decade. But the rumours that he's about to jump into the vacancy at Birmingham are getting stronger by the hour.

Is fighting for Premiership survival, in a club with a large "For Sale" sign around its neck, really a more attractive job than the chance to take your nation to its first major tournament for 12 years? Birmingham probably wouldn't be McLeish's first choice, but he was chastened by his experience last year, when he spent 6 months waiting for the phone to ring. McLeish felt that his achievements at Rangers earnt him a crack at a job in the English Premiership, but clubs like Middlesborough and Charlton preferred to look elsewhere.

There's also the small question of money. The SFA will offer improved terms on his current £350k a year contract, but any Birmingham offer will be much more than that. McLeish may feel that this is his only chance to crack the lucrative English managerial marketplace, and if so he will be gone within a week.

Let's face it, it's probably better than leaving half-way through a qualifying campaign, as Walter Smith did. And, impressive though his time in charge has been, this might be as good as it gets for McLeish as Scotland manager. As discussed on this blog in January, McLeish's managerial career has thus far followed a familiar patttern - excellent first year, followed by decline. Maybe it's for the best if he goes now.

Who to replace him? Well, the rank awfulness of the Berti Vogts era means the SFA will not appoint a foreign coach again for a long time. So the shortlist will be exclusively Scottish. This is how it will happen.

Gordon Strachan has already been rejected for the job once and won't put himself forward again. There's as much chance of David Moyes being interested as Alex Ferguson. Billy Davies could be out of a job soon but hasn't done enough to convince yet. Craig Levein and John Collins are both strong candidates, but will probably not want to leave their clubs at this time.

That leaves Jim Jefferies, the Kilmarnock manager, and Jimmy Calderwood at Aberdeen. Both have been in their jobs for a while, both are experienced, and they both might feel that they have taken their current clubs as far as they can. Calderwood is currently in talks about extending his contract at Aberdeen, but is understood to be reluctant to do so without the promise of more money for his squad. Money that isn't going to be made available. He's looking increasingly frustrated at Pittodrie, and may decide that the Scotland job would be a welcome fresh challenge.

So, there we go... 2 real candidates, both with decent records in the Scottish game but nothing like the record of achievement McLeish could point to. Calderwood looks the choice, though... he has some experience of the UEFA Cup, and has worked in Holland before. That should be enough to sway the decision his way.

Old Firm tied at the top of the SPL as Rangers beat Celtic again

Rangers won the first Old Firm clash of the season on Saturday, an impressive 3-0 win that puts the Old Firm level on points again at the top of the SPL. After two seasons of not mounting a decent challenge for the title, this season's battle already looks like it could go down to the wire.

Gordon Strachan admitted that Rangers deserved to win, and he will be used to it by now - since Walter Smith returned to Ibrox, they've won all three Old Firm clashes. To be fair, Celtic weren't helped by a nasty head injury to captain Stephen McManus, especially as Gary Caldwell is such an inferior defender. With the games now coming thick and fast, Celtic still need to learn how to stop conceding cheap goals or their season could unravel.

Elsewhere, Hibs' unbeaten start to the season was ended by impressive Motherwell, but John Collins praised his players for their performance: with Hibs only a point off the leaders, he claimed there is a "huge amount to feel positive about". Mark McGhee was naturally pleased with the win, but was also full of praise for Collins' passing football philosophy. These two teams are arguably the ones a neutral would choose to watch this season.

Hearts were undone by Dundee Utd, and Aberdeen beat ICT. Kilmarnock and Falkirk shared the points, while St Mirren beat Gretna to move away from the foot of the table.

Aberdeen given UEFA Cup draw

Dear God, that's harsh.

Aberdeen today found out who their opponents will be in the UEFA Cup group stage, and it's not easy reading for the Pittodrie faithful. Panathinaikos, Lokomotiv Moscow, Atletico Madrid and FC Copenhagen make for a formidable quartet of fixtures. What makes things even worse is that only one of these clubs, Atletico, comes from one of the "big" football markets in Europe, which will affect television revenue for these ties.

Finishing anything other than bottom of this group looks a tough ask: FC Copenhagen are the only other club even vaguely comparable in terms of their player budget, but they have much more European experience in recent years.

Still, if Jimmy Calderwood can successfully negotiate a way out of these matches, and keep Aberdeen in the mix at the right end of the SPL, it will rank as an achievement as great as any in his management career to date. He has always expressed a desire to test himself: it looks as if his wishes have just come true.

Dunfermline drop through the floor

Imagine being a Pars fan.

Relegation looked nailed on months ago. There simply was no way back. The season would be remembered for a great, improbable run in the Scottish Cup, but there was no chance of staying in the SPL.

And then they went on a run, becoming the SPL's form team as the two clubs above them, St Mirren and Motherwell, went into freefall. Victories over both those teams had dragged the Pars back to within a point of St Mirren, and suddenly survival looked possible. Maybe, even probable. On Saturday, Dunfermline were 1-0 away to Inverness, while St Mirren were 2-0 down to Motherwell. If those scorelines remained the same, Dunfermline would have leapfrogged St Mirren at the bottom of the table, with just one more game left to play.

But then it all went wrong. Dorus De Vries, the goalkeeper who has been in heroic form since January, made a blunder and allowed Caley back into the game. Then he was defeated by a wicked deflection in the 89th minute. Meanwhile, the Buddies found 3 goals to snatch all the points from Motherwell. Dunfermline, finally, are relegated, and their fans are distraught. As John Cleese said in Clockwise:

"It's not the despair...I can TAKE the despair. It's the HOPE....."

Somehow, they are going to have to lift themselves for the Scottish Cup final in a fortnight, but you can't imagine it being much of a party now.

There now remains just one issue to be decided... who is going to finish third and grab the UEFA Cup spot? Aberdeen now lead Hearts by just a point, after their defeat to Celtic and Hearts' victory in the Edinburgh derby. Aberdeen's claim to be the third best team in Scotland is undermined somewhat by their failure to take a single point off the Old Firm this season, but if they are to guarantee that 3rd place, they will need to beat Rangers this coming weekend, because Hearts will surely fancy a win against Kilmarnock, who have nothing left to play for.

Aberdeen's season is about to be defined by one match.

Celtic finally stumble over the line after a lacklustre race

So Celtic have finally won the SPL 2006/07, after a 2-1 win over Kilmarnock at Rugby Park. Gordon Strachan has emulated the feat of his predecessor, Martin O'Neill, and won back-to-back titles in his first two seasons at the club. His award as Scottish Players' Association Manager of the Year later on Sunday night was recognition for the fine job he has done rebuilding the Celtic squad while maintaining a dominance over the rest of Scottish football. It was his best signing, Shunsuke Nakamura, who secured the win with a trademark freekick right at the end of the game (he also won the player of the year award, too).

Yet clearly all is not well with Scottish football. Celtic's hold on the title was practically complete by Christmas, and it was only their recent poor form that kept Rangers in with a mathematical chance of snatching the championship until the split. Of Hearts, last season's pretenders to the crown, there was no sign. It is impossible not to let the paucity of competition take some of the shine off Celtic's latest trophy.

There were 8,000 Celtic fans down in Ayrshire to celebrate with the team on Sunday, limited by Kilmarnock's decision not to turn even more of their ground over to the visitors and annoy their season ticket holders, rather than a lack of seats. Kilmarnock really don't have anything more to play for this season - but, as Jim Jefferies sighed, this lack of revenue will hurt his plans for rebuilding his squad over the summer.

Even more depressing was the pitiful crowd at Pittodrie. They weren't helped by a tiny travelling support from Hibs, but less than 10,000 people turned up to watch Aberdeen try and secure European football for next season. Aberdeen have improved markedly in recent years, and yet their supporters just don't seem interested. It's true that they aren't the prettiest team to watch, but without more punters coming back and putting more money into the club, the chances of them attracting better players in the summer remain remote.

Something, it's clear, has got to change.

“Season-defining” week leaves Hibs chasing the dream, but Aberdeen licking their wounds

As soon as Barry Nicholson scored a last-minute equaliser to set-up a Scottish Cup replay at Easter Road, the pundits started talking about Hibs and Aberdeen having a week that would define their seasons. It was time to see if these two proud clubs – marginalised for years by an acute lack of resources compared to Celtic and Rangers, and now contending with a Hearts team operating outside the normal rules of financial prudence – could make this season one to cherish.

Aberdeen is an oasis of top-flight football in the North East, illustrated by the fact that matches against Inverness Caledonian Thistle – a club based 80 miles away – represents the closest they get to a regular derby match. Aberdeen have yet to lose to Caley in the SPL, but they came mighty close this time, relying on a last gasp goal from Steve Lovell to rob a point from a game they should have lost.

Hibs big week didn’t start until Monday night. They were away against Kilmarnock, a team who have proved a big thorn in their side in recent years, which made it all the more surprising when John Collins decided to give debut starts to three 19 year olds from the academy – Lewis Stevenson, Kevin McCann and Ross Campbell. It was a big, big gamble, but it paid off, with Hibs surviving a fairly turgid first half and then scoring twice through Ivan Sproule and Steven Fletcher.

Then came the Cup tie on Thursday night, with Barry Nicholson again instrumental as he opened the scoring against Hibs. But that was as good as it got for Aberdeen – 2-1 down by half-time after poor defending from corners, they then fell apart at the beginning of the second. Abdessalam Benjelloun, Hibs’ Moroccan striker, has talent, but has struggled at times with the pace of Scottish football. Inexplicable, then, that twice Aberdeen held off him rather than closing him down. And twice Benji, as he is universally known, exploited the space to punish his opponents.

Jimmy Calderwood is the kind of manager who heads every ball and contests every decision from the touchline, but he is not blinkered, and was fulsome in his praise of Hibs at the end of the game. He was somewhat less impressed with his own team’s efforts, though, bemoaning their uncharacteristic defensive lapses. He tried to talk positively about the rest of the season, but his admission that “the dream is over for another year” betrayed his dismay at being out of the Cup.

It is Hibs, though, that dream about lifting this trophy more than any other club. They have not won it since 1902, a record that stands as one of the biggest burdens to carry in British football, and an easy source of mockery for rival fans. They now go on to a 4th round home tie against Gretna, who they spanked 6-0 in the League Cup earlier this season. That won’t stop their own fans having kittens as the game approaches, however.

Following the mid-week replay, both clubs were back to league business at the weekend. Or should have been: Aberdeen’s visit to Motherwell was cancelled because of the poor pitch, which probably pleased Calderwood, who had bitterly complained that the match had not been moved to Sunday to give his team more time to recover from the Hibs match. Motherwell refused to reschedule because it would have cost £30,000, claimed club secretary Stewart Robertson, which “is a lot of money; it could pay a player’s wage”. And no, Premiership fans, he is not talking about their weekly wage. Still, re-arranging the fixture will cause less of a congestion headache for Aberdeen now.

Hibs did play their fixture on Sunday but wished they hadn’t, getting spanked 3-0 by ICT, who were probably still smarting about their failure to beat Aberdeen the previous week. Talent and consistency win you prizes in football, and while Hibs have plenty of the former, they lack the ability to perform week in, week out. Centre back Chris Hogg had a real nightmare. Hibs have scored more goals than anyone else apart from Celtic in the SPL this season, but have conceded more than any of the teams above them.

Both these clubs can still have successful seasons. Aberdeen remain in the chase for 2nd place, while Hibs can see a road to Hampden opening up ahead of them. Their real defining moments are yet to come.

Celtic 5-1 St Mirren
Kilmarnock 1-0 Dundee Utd
Dunfermline 0-1 Rangers
ICT 3-0 Hibees
Motherwell p-p Dons
Hearts 1-0 Falkirk