Game over - Rangers will take the title

Be in no doubt - Rangers will win the SPL this season. For Celtic to retain their title, Gordon Strachan will have to do what he has so far failed to do, and work out how to beat Uncle Watty's light blues. He'll then have to do the same again in the last Old Firm derby of the season. And then he'll have to hope that Rangers drop more points than them in their remaining 3 fixtures. Never gonna happen, in other words.

Only the most blinkered Rangers fan would deny that they've had a decent slice of luck this season, but that doesn't matter now. You could list at length the games in which Rangers have played poorly, but won because the opposition have been even worse, but it doesn't change the table. They are in driving seat, and that's all they will care about.

So Celtic's 3-in-a-row title aspirations are over, and the inquest will begin as to what went wrong, and whether Strachan is still the man to lead them. Celtic have - with the possible exception of the Champion's League - underperformed this season, after decent investment over the summer. Strachan strengthened the squad, but some of his acquisitions have disappointed - Donati, for instance - while others are forgotten already. The team has frequently been boring to watch, and ground out results against teams they should have steam-rollered.

This weekend, Derek Riordan went public on his "Celtic hell", accusing Strachan of refusing to play him now because he might do well, and therefore embarass the manager for having given him such limited opportunities up until now. Scott Brown - another ex-Hibee - looks a shadow of the player he was at Easter Road, arguably too restricted at Celtic to play his natural game.

It looks like a major re-build is required this summer, rather than some gentle tweaks. Will Strachan be the man to do it?

Scotland two results away from achieving the unthinkable

Another fine performance, another triumphant result. Scotland's 3-1 win over Ukraine has put the Eastern Europeans out of Euro 2008, and four points from the remaining two games will guarantee qualification. Alec McLeish, while always stressing the difficulty of the task, always said that "we have to believe we can qualify". Now the rest of Scotland is believing too.

McLeish also said this was his team's best performance at Hampden so far, and the home crowd probably had their best match for years too, a wall of noise coming down from the stands throughout the game. The players are thriving in this new-found confidence, and it delivered a 2-0 lead within 11 minutes. Scotland were busy and committed, Ukraine unable to settle into any sort of shape, and Kenny Miller headed in from a free kick. From another set piece, the ball fell to Lee McCulloch, in acres of space, who chipped in a delightful effort to the far corner.

Ukraine came back into it, Shevchenko bagged a goal before half-time, and Scotland had to dig deep once again to prevent another score. But then James McFadden escaped his marker and scored from a breakaway to seal the points.

Georgia away is next Wednesday, hardly an easy tie, and illustration of just how tough this group is. Georgia could easily finish 6th in this group. A win there, and a draw against Italy in November will seal the job, unless Italy (or most unlikely, France) have already screwed up by then.

A massive game to finish, then. But Italy will not be relishing that trip.

SPL final weekend

The 2006/7 SPL season finally came to a close at the weekend, split along class lines. On Saturday the bottom six played, and showed us once again all the problems this league faces. The biggest crowd of the day – 6,000 – saw Dundee Utd and Motherwell play out a 0-0 draw and wonder if either of these clubs can push on next season. Optimists could find encouraging signs at both clubs, but the fact is that they have contributed very little of note this term. Meanwhile, even smaller crowds witnessed Inverness Caley Thistle beat St Mirren and an already relegated Dunfermline capitulated to Falkirk.

ICT have firmly established top-level football in the Highlands, and that is a notable achievement, even if it took the amalgamation of two existing clubs to do it. And fans of Falkirk and St. Mirren are of course entitled to look forward to next season with confidence and hope for the continued progress of their teams. But with such limited gates, it’s really tough for them to grow much further and hold onto their best players – Rangers have cherry-picked one from each for next term on pre-contracts. Both have said they will rebuild over the summer, but SPL survival will probably be the limit of their ambitions next season as well.

At least Sunday provided better entertainment, most notably up North, where it turned out to be a very good day indeed for Aberdeen. Firstly, and most importantly, they secured third place in the league at long last, meaning best of the rest status behind the Old Firm and an entry into the UEFA Cup next season. Secondly, they achieved this by beating Rangers 2-0. The visitors were below par, but nonetheless, this was Aberdeen’s first points off the Old Firm all season, earning a bit of legitimacy to go with that 3rd place. Their failure to take so much as a point off them prior to the weekend had become an increasing embarrassment.

And thirdly, they won in front of a healthy home crowd of 20,000. Aberdeen’s trouble with attendances have been well documented this season, and Jimmy Calderwood has often expressed his frustration on the issue – because, unless more punters start coming turning up on a regular basis, the Dons are going to struggle to put any kind of sustained challenge together.

It is expected that they will sell Pittodrie and move to a new home within the next few years in order to pay the debts off. They will then have a clean slate – but the size of that new ground, and therefore the size of the ambitions of the Dons – will probably be defined between now and then.

In the end, it didn’t matter what Hearts did on the pitch, because it was all in Aberdeen’s hands. But a 1-0 defeat at Kilmarnock was not how they wanted to finish the season. The assistant coach, Stephen Frail, was justified when saying that the damage had been done earlier in the season. Since the Soviet-era clown Eduoard Maloveef left, Hearts really have been more consistent and more reliable, and the points have piled up as a consequence. But that doesn’t change the fact that, in the high stakes game that Vladimir Romanov is playing, entry into the Champions League again represented a minimum achievement for this season. To miss out not only on that competition but the UEFA Cup as well is nothing short of disastrous. The financial results will come out later, but it’s certain that this season of utter non-achievement will have come at another heavy loss.

And finally, the Champions turned up at Easter Road, with neither Hibs nor Celtic having anything left to play for. Well, except that Hibs really needed to sign off with a win, and end the run of 9 games without victory. And win they did, as both sets of fans sat back and enjoyed the Scott Brown show. He scored with a header, bossed the game, and generally showed why Celtic have just spent £4.4m to acquire him, a record fee between Scottish clubs.

It’s an ominous development for everyone else, Rangers especially. Celtic have just made themselves favourites to win the title next season too.

Give us a winter break

The SPL used to enjoy a winter break around this time of the year. It proved to be short-lived. It first got temporarily suspended, to avoid the season running into the World Cup (presumably for the benefit of foreign internationals playing here, because Scotland certainly weren't involved), and then abandoned for good as the clubs voted by a majority to plug the January hole in their cashflow. They didn’t like the grounds being empty while paying players to play.

Much of January proved a persuasive argument for the winter break's return, however. Motherwell had 3 weeks off anyhow, because Fir Park had been unplayable, but even where games have gone ahead the standard of the pitches has been awful. The quality of the football has really suffered as a result, and fans have had to sit through some turgid games.

Compounding the boredom, the SPL couldn't throw up any shock results to enliven a humdrum season. Celtic remain in a league of their own, and seem unable to lose, even when totally outplayed. Inverness pushed them closest, but they missed a bundle of chances at 1-1, and the last minute sucker punch duly arrived. Celtic are now just five victories away from retaining the title.

The transfer window, too, proved to be a damp squib for much of the month, with very little happening. Rangers moved to strengthen their slipshod defence with the, ahem, experienced pair of David Weir and Ugo Ehiogu, and there were a few other bits of business, but not much else. Frankly, it was all a bit boring.

So thanks, then, to Mr Vladimir Romanov, back from his self-imposed silence to liven up a drab winter and make Hearts the centre of attention once more. Things had been going alarmingly smoothly over at Tynecastle, with some players coming in on loan, the team getting the results on the pitch, and Edinburgh Council agreeing in principle to the sale of land to the club to bring the putative stadium redevelopment one step closer.

Choosing the Belorussian magazine Pressball to air his views, meaning that his refusal to talk to the Scottish media technically still holds, Vlad gave an enigmatic interview, a bit like Cantona's famous seagulls and trawler effort all those years ago, but with added menace. Not being the most cosmopolitan of nations, the Scottish media all had to rely on the same translation of the piece to reprint with glee, and we love fitba sees nothing wrong with that.

He started off on his favourite theme, the conspiracy against Hearts. "In Scotland we have to fight not in the sporting sense, but against constant intrigues." One of Romanov's favourite subjects is the "conspiracy" against Hearts - from the referees to the media, they all conspire against a club that dares to challenge the Old Firm. And he's on pretty firm ground, too, if only because there are many fans in Scotland who are quite happy to see someone roughing the Glasgow twins up a bit.

But then he went on. Asked about Stephen Pressley's departure, he said: "There was no conflict whatsoever, there was a banal betrayal. Players sold themselves for the striped shirts they were promised; they decided that these were so valuable that they could allow themselves to behave the way they did." Not a single player, but players. Yup, Vladimir was on the warpath again.

Paul Hartley and Craig Gordon, the other 2 members of "the Riccarton three" who hosted that memorable press briefing at the training ground in October, were left out of the squad against Rangers, and it was now clear that Romanov wanted them out. At long last, the transfer window seemed about to feature some big moves.

Rangers put in at least 2 bids for Hartley, but had them both knocked back. Fulham, meanwhile, bid for Gordon, but rumours abounded that Romanov was trying to flog him to a Russian club. Gordon wasn't keen, not surprising, given that clubs of the calibre of Arsenal seem interested. He knows full well he will have lots of options in the summer, and is under no pressure to leave.

Elsewhere, the bidding finally got going for the Hibs twins, Kevin Thomson and Scott Brown, setting up an intriguing last few days of the transfer window as Rangers and Celtic jockeyed to cherry pick the best talent from Edinburgh.

When it was all done, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that it's the green halves of the cities that have come out on top. Despite Hibs' insistence that the twins weren't for sale, the animosity between Thomson and the manager, John Collins, became so bad that Hibs finally decided on Tuesday 30 January that they needed rid of the destabilising influence in their dressing room. For the first time, they invited clubs to come in for the player, if they met the asking price of £2m. Celtic and West Bromich Albion, who had both made offers for the pair, thought that a bit rich... but Rangers took the bait. Meanwhile, Hibs have held on to Scott Brown - their best player - for the rest of the season, proving that the twins could be separated after all.

Celtic have, in the space of 6 weeks, strengthened their squad with two seasoned, proven players, for a total outlay of a million quid. Steven Pressley is already adding his grit and resilience at the back, while Paul Hartley will add guile and match-winning nous in midfield. Unlike, say, Thomas Gravesen, who might have been good enough for the Premiership, but has still to prove himself in Scotland. It's a big step up, after all. ;-)

Rangers clearly wanted an attacking player, because as well as Hartley, they also bid for Alan Gow of Falkirk and Lee McCulloch of Wigan, yet their bids for all three were dismissed as too low (although Gow has signed a pre-contract and will arrive in the summer). Instead, they paid much, much more for Thomson, who plays much deeper, in the same area of the pitch that Barry Ferguson likes to call his own. It's all a bit odd.

Odder still that Hearts, despite their claimed ambition to challenge the Old Firm, have now lost 2 of their best players to Celtic and refuse to pick one of the best goalkeepers in Britain. With their losses for last year at £5m and total debt now up to £28m, and the likelihood of European football next season lessening by the day, anyone who knows what the plan is please feel free to enlighten us all.

As well as the long overdue excitement in the transfer market, knock-out football returned to take everyone's minds off the dreary SPL "race" and inject a bit of drama into proceedings. The favourites for the CIS League Cup, Hibernian, booked their place at Hampden by labouring past St Johnstone, while Kilmarnock showed who the real favourites should be by dismissing Falkirk 3-0.

Then, last weekend the 4th round of the Scottish Cup saw Hibs safely through again, while Hearts tumbled to Dunfermline and Celtic trounced Inverness Caley. The pitches are still poor, but the Pars-Hearts tie in particular lacked nothing for drama, as a last minute goal from a side that just cannot score in the League put the holders out.

The games will come thick and fast from now on, and hopefully the pitches will get better. And all of Scotland will be watching to see if Alex McLeish can make a winning start as Scotland manager. Incidentally, he's a fan of the winter break as well.

Rangers: it's 1991 all over again

No manager, out of the title race, out of the CIS Cup, out of the Scottish Cup, a divided and dispirited squad, and a chairman who wants to sell up. Rangers Football Club is in a mess, alright.

Predictably, the crisis at Ibrox has dominated the Scottish sports media over the weekend, fuelled by a lacklustre defeat at the hands of Dunfermline, a team who (up until Sunday) couldn't beat an egg. Another piece of silverware gone.

Everyone seems to agree that Walter Smith is going to be announced as the new boss on Monday, which gives the story an added dimension as we wonder what will happen to the Scotttish national team, who currently top their Euro 2008 qualifying group thanks to Smith's astute management. He is predicted to head a new management structure variously comprising Ally McCoist, Ian Durrant and Stuart McCall, a set-up that could only be more true blue if Gazza was brought in as fitness coach. Rangers are recoiling from their failed experiment with a continental coach and are turning to the old boys network to run the team and recruit some more Scottish players. In fact, David Murray has said there will never be another foreign manager again.

If the predictions are right, and lure of Govan proves too strong, Smith should forget about continuing the Scotland job part-time. Walking away from his contract is bad enough; the SFA shouldn't compound the problem by leaving a man in charge who cannot give the job the whole-hearted commitment it needs.

Opinion on Le Guen's brief time in charge is split. The majority view is that he was rubbish and deserved to go. Several stories have claimed that he wanted out, either because he was lining himself up for the PSG job, or simply because he'd had enough grief and didn't have the bottle to carry the job through.

There is a sizeable minority of Rangers fans, though, who regret that his attempt to reform the club from top-to-bottom have ended prematurely. Arsene Wenger, after all, had indifferent results early in his Arsenal career, but maintained the unshakeable faith of his board. Paul Le Guen, it seems, did not. His sacking of Ferguson seemed a provocative last act, to find out how much support he had. His chairman, horrified by the divisions in the dressing room and the lack of progress on the field, had lost his belief. The transfer window had brought things to a head - a journalist in France has claimed that PLG was not promised the funds he needed, and quite clearly his plan to offload Ferguson was not met with approval either.

Smith, however, will get more backing - Andy Webster has already joined on loan, after a disappointing 4 months at Wigan, but apparently injured himself in training and will be out for 4 weeks. Other than him, all the usual (Scottish) suspects have been linked to Rangers - Scott Brown, Paul Hartley, Russell Anderson. That's probably £4m.

How Murray must despair at his predicament. £4m is peanuts in the Premiership, but money that Rangers simply don't have - it will be coming out of Murray's own pocket, at a time when he really wants to cut his losses and get out of the club. While foreign investors are snapping up Premiership clubs left right and centre, Rangers have been openly for sale for over a year without any progress. Even the £50m dowry that Murray put in to pay off the debts has failed to attract any attention for the Scottish bridesmaid.

Meanwhile, they have a season to salvage, and the irony of the radical change in direction towards the homeland is that there is only one trophy left to compete for - the UEFA Cup. And it was lack of success in Europe that persuaded Murray to let Walter Smith go last time. But that was then, when domestic trophies were easy and progress in Europe seemed elusive. Now Rangers are still involved in a European competition after Christmas for the 2nd year in a row, while still humiliated by Celtic at home. How times have changed.

Agent's role under scrutiny as the SPL transfer windae opens

Newspapers have always speculated about possible player moves... it helps shifts copies, and arguably meets the needs of fans, who all enjoy a bit of idle gossip and speculation from time to time about who might be turning up at which club. Such stories are often based on little in the way of hard facts, using "sources close to the club" and "insiders" to flesh things out... but in this context, it's usually a bit of harmless fun.

What has been happening in Scotland over the past couple of months has, however, arguably crossed the line into manipulation of the market. Willie McKay, an agent with an already dubious reputation amongst fans, and one of the few agents who refused to comply with the recent investigation into corruption in the English Premiership, began representing Kevin Thomson and Scott Brown of Hibernian earlier in 2006, and almost immediately began pushing for moves for them both. When his initial efforts were rebuffed by the club, he has waged an increasingly bitter campaign against Hibs, using a complicit Daily Record newspaper as his main weapon. Most recently, it ran a story with extensive "quotes" from Scott Brown, claiming that the fee Hibs are seeking for him is too high.

Now, the Daily Record, you can imagine, is quite happy with the arrangement. They get the inside information on a story involving two of the most highly-rated players in Scotland, and as long as the story runs, they can generate more and more copy. As the Hibs board have a long-standing policy of "not commenting on speculation", the paper has only one source for these stories, yet that has not dulled their enthusiasm. It is time to ask, however, if this blatant disregard of all the basic tenets of responsible journalism is acceptable.

For one thing, no one who knows Scott Brown personally believes for a moment that the quotes attributed to him actually came from his own mouth. That is not to say he didn't agree to them appearing alongside his name... almost certainly he did. But if even supposed direct remarks from an individual can now be ghost-written, it makes the reader question if anything in the paper can be taken at face value. Secondly, although Hibs are not speaking to the paper, surely they have a duty to investigate the situation anyhow, rather than just print one side of the story? Their most recent effort was to print a claim from Willie McKay that both players had "been more than threatened" by the Hibs manager, and told they would be dropped from the team - claims that were palpably untrue.

All of this has rather overshadowed the forthcoming month of wheeler-dealering, but here's brief summary of what might happen over the next 31 days:

Celtic: Started the ball rolling by signing Steven Pressley on an 18 month contract on Friday, unlikely to do a huge amount of business beyond this. They need a long-term replacement for Neil Lennon, but Strachan has stated a preference for waiting until the summer.

Aberdeen: There's been speculation over Russell Anderson, their inspirational captain and centre-back, who surely should have had more Scotland caps by now. Rangers dearly need him, but Anderson has said warm words about staying at Pittodrie. Jamie Smith may go in January if still refusing to sign a new contract. Have already brought in Craig Brewster as cover upfront.

Rangers: Their defence, in particular, is an absolute mess, and with Lee Martin and Phil Bardsley going back to Man Utd after their loan deals, they need reinforcements. Whether there is any money to bring in the kind of quality they need, though, is debatable. Scott Brown looks to be beyond their budget; Paul Hartley maybe isn't.

Hearts: There are anything up to 30 Lithuanians training in Edinburgh right now, so expect plenty new faces from Romanov's footballing empire to turn up at Tynecastle. Pressley's already gone, and there will be few surprises if Hartley and Craig Gordon get sold.

Hibs: need a new keeper, need a new keeper, need a new keeper. John Collins threw Scott Brown's transfer request in the bin, but if he and/or Kevin Thomson are sold, expect replacements. Collins will want to stamp his own mark on the squad he's inherited, but may wait until the summer.

Kilmarnock: Ongoing rumblings about their winger Steven Naismith, and Killie are after another striker, but money is, as always, tight down in Ayrshire.

Falkirk: Having just scored a hat-trick at Inverness, Anthony Stokes is attracting more and more attention by the day. Falkirk are desperate to extend the Arsenal player's loan until the end of the year, but may be outbid by another club down south. Alan Gow has interested Hibs, but they will probably only move for him if Scott Brown leaves.

Dundee Utd: Lee Wilkie has gone out on loan to Ross County (given he only signed a pay-as-you-play deal with Utd in October, who knows if he has any future under Craig Levein). The Arabs are absolutely flying under their new boss, but the chairman will probably want to wait before spending some more money, given the amount of cash that's been wasted on under-performing squads over the past few years.

Motherwell: Plenty speculation around striker Scott MacDonald, but happily Stephen Craigan has signed a new deal.

ICT: Charlie Christie will have been relieved when Craig Brewster got sacked at Utd, because it would stop him trying to sign all his players in the transfer window. They are a tidy outfit, though, and a number could still be coveted elsewhere. Here's some pure speculation - Hibs will make an offer for keeper Mark Brown.

St Mirren: deserved point against Rangers to sign off 2006, but St Mirren's recent results have been poor. Gus McPherson wants a few more players, and luckily he's familiar with the lower divisions, because that's where his budget will send him.

Dunfermline: Put simply, they need to sign the Messiah, because little short of a miracle is going to pull them out of this one.

Think you're attractive? Depends how rich you are.

Celtic's chief executive, Peter Lawwell, was at the Soccerex conference in Dubai last week. Socccerex dubs itself as “the only global convention dedicated to the professional b2b football environment”. In layman’s terms, “how to make money out of the world’s favourite sport”.

Peter Lawwell gave a speech in which he characterised Celtic as one of only 5 or 6 clubs with global appeal, hampered by a domestic league that is “fairly unattractive”. Lawwell has finally accepted that the chances of Celtic joining the English Premiership are non-existent, although expect to hear a lot of bleating from Glasgow if Cardiff ever make it to the promised land. Instead, he is agitating for a yet further expanded elite European competition, a long stated dream of that unlikeable group G14. The aim, of course, is to make more money.

But one wonders if he had the chance to watch last weekend’s Hibs v Celtic match last Sunday before he flew out, because here was football that certainly was attractive for all the right reasons – fast, technical, and exciting. It was a football match that kept the crowd on the edge of the seats for the full 90 minutes, as Celtic fought back from 2-0 down and Hibs held on, before conjuring a chance that would have won them all 3 points right at the death. For all that Scottish football is dismissed as agricultural, just look at the squad of the runaway leaders. Players like Shaun Maloney (last season’s player of the year, by the way), Aiden McGeady and Kenny Miller are quick, skilful and like the ball played to feet, not hoofed at them from 40 yards.

Yes, there were full-blooded tackles, and confrontations between players, that would probably not be allowed anywhere else, but these are part of the character of Scottish football, part of its unique identity, and to be treasured all the more as football increasingly becomes a contact-free sport elsewhere. Not better, not worse – just different.

Compelling spectacle though it was, this match is nowhere near as valuable as a commodity as even the most mundane fixture in the English Premiership. Scottish football is a poor relation compared to its obscenely wealthy neighbour. Easter Road has a capacity of around 17,000, which is an obvious limit on the number of tickets that can be sold for the game. The domestic TV market in Scotland, with a population of only 5 million, is also limited, so the obvious route to growth is through “overseas” sales. In the poly-channel digital TV market, live sports events are increasingly unique, as viewers cannot skip through the ad breaks. This makes them attractive to advertisers and broadcasters alike – just today, BT announced a deal with Setanta to sell Premiership and SPL matches to their broadband customers.

It is not entirely fanciful to suggest that the SPL could grab an increased share of the “overseas” market for televised football. After all, leagues fall in and out of fashion: a decade ago, Serie A was much admired and watched across Europe, before viewers started turning away after too many boring games, and there are signs that the all-conquering Premiership is losing some of its excitement. To do so, however, depends on making the league competitive on a consistent basis. Unfortunately, Hibernian’s own experience of the past week show just how hard that is.

Scott Brown had a great game against Celtic. A tenacious and dynamic midfielder, he is a genuine flair player and has a very promising career in front of him. Everyone – including Hibs – accept that his future probably lies at a bigger club. Unfortunately, that is not enough for the Old Firm. Along with Kevin Thomson, the Hibs captain, Brown changed agents in the summer, and has been promised immediate riches by Willie McKay. Despite only signing an extension to his contract in the summer, McKay has now declared the terms of this contract unacceptable, and has been agitating to renegotiate terms, aided by the Daily Record, who have printed a succession of leaks from the agent while Hibs remain silent. When this failed, the player handed in transfer request after Saturday’s game against Dundee Utd. The clear aim is to force Hibs to sell in January, probably to Rangers, and hopefully for a knockdown fee.

None of this is healthy for the Scottish game. Either Scott Brown stays, and helps Hibs to compete against the Old Firm. Or he leaves, to the highest bidder, earning Hibernian the money to try and replace him and strengthen their squad. Having one of their key players deliberately destabilised is not in Hibs interest, obviously, but here’s the interesting thing – long term, it’s not in the Old Firm’s interests either.

It might be unrealistic to expect Lawwell and his fellow delegates (Willie McKay was at Soccerex too) to put short-term, narrow self-interest aside for a while, and think of the bigger picture. Dubai, after all, is the prime exponent of such thinking - a desert state that found billions of dollars worth of oil under the ground, and had an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustainable legacy for generations to come. Instead, they are splurging the lot on 7 star hotels, environmentally ruinous golf courses and holiday apartments on artificial palm-shaped islands, all built through exploiting cheap migrant labour from the sub-continent.

Celtic – and Rangers – need a healthy SPL. It’s about time they recognised this fact, and did something constructive, rather than endlessly moaning about it.