After missing out on Euro 2008, can Scotland make it to the next World Cup?

Football doesn't allow much time to dwell and reflect anymore. Scotland may have only played their last Euro 2008 qualifying game a week ago, but already it's time to forget about the disappointment of that game and look ahead. Club supporters are already immersed in the domestic season again, while today's 2010 World Cup qualifying draw gives a chance to focus on the next challenge.

It's hardly an easy draw, but it could have been worse. Scotland are in the only group with 5 members instead of six, and will face Holland, Norway, Iceland and Macedonia. The route to qualification goes like this - secure the maximum 12 points against the two weakest nations, share the points with Holland, and two wins against Norway should do the job. Easy, eh?!

Of course, what no one yet knows is whether Alec McLeish will still be in charge of the side. The Scottish Football Association want him to stay, not surprising given that he's got Scotland playing their best football for a decade. But the rumours that he's about to jump into the vacancy at Birmingham are getting stronger by the hour.

Is fighting for Premiership survival, in a club with a large "For Sale" sign around its neck, really a more attractive job than the chance to take your nation to its first major tournament for 12 years? Birmingham probably wouldn't be McLeish's first choice, but he was chastened by his experience last year, when he spent 6 months waiting for the phone to ring. McLeish felt that his achievements at Rangers earnt him a crack at a job in the English Premiership, but clubs like Middlesborough and Charlton preferred to look elsewhere.

There's also the small question of money. The SFA will offer improved terms on his current £350k a year contract, but any Birmingham offer will be much more than that. McLeish may feel that this is his only chance to crack the lucrative English managerial marketplace, and if so he will be gone within a week.

Let's face it, it's probably better than leaving half-way through a qualifying campaign, as Walter Smith did. And, impressive though his time in charge has been, this might be as good as it gets for McLeish as Scotland manager. As discussed on this blog in January, McLeish's managerial career has thus far followed a familiar patttern - excellent first year, followed by decline. Maybe it's for the best if he goes now.

Who to replace him? Well, the rank awfulness of the Berti Vogts era means the SFA will not appoint a foreign coach again for a long time. So the shortlist will be exclusively Scottish. This is how it will happen.

Gordon Strachan has already been rejected for the job once and won't put himself forward again. There's as much chance of David Moyes being interested as Alex Ferguson. Billy Davies could be out of a job soon but hasn't done enough to convince yet. Craig Levein and John Collins are both strong candidates, but will probably not want to leave their clubs at this time.

That leaves Jim Jefferies, the Kilmarnock manager, and Jimmy Calderwood at Aberdeen. Both have been in their jobs for a while, both are experienced, and they both might feel that they have taken their current clubs as far as they can. Calderwood is currently in talks about extending his contract at Aberdeen, but is understood to be reluctant to do so without the promise of more money for his squad. Money that isn't going to be made available. He's looking increasingly frustrated at Pittodrie, and may decide that the Scotland job would be a welcome fresh challenge.

So, there we go... 2 real candidates, both with decent records in the Scottish game but nothing like the record of achievement McLeish could point to. Calderwood looks the choice, though... he has some experience of the UEFA Cup, and has worked in Holland before. That should be enough to sway the decision his way.

After a heroic campaign, it's now do or die for Scotland against Italy

After all that has gone before, including a double over France and an impressive trashing of Ukraine on Saturday, Scotland suffered their third defeat of the Euro 2008 qualifying campaign with a 2-0 loss away to Georgia.

Given the hightened expectations, this has somewhat predictably led to a mood of recrimination and bitter disappointment, with the Scotsman, for example, describing it as the "collapse" of the heroic run to next summer's competition. The Beeb's "expert analysts" (fortunately Alan Hansen managed to watch the game for once, as it didn't clash with England) all felt it was a poor performance. But Scotland, unlike England, still have their fate in their own hands. A victory over Italy at Hampden next month, irrespective of other results, and we will be back at the international top table after a decade of failure. If France lose against Ukraine (unlikely, but not impossible) then a point will do.

It wasn't an impressive display, that's for sure. But then, it wasn't an easy tie either, despite Georgia's own injury problems. With both first choice full-backs out, no Paul Hartley, Scott Brown or Lee McCulloch from midfield, and a half-fit Barry Ferguson and Darren Fletcher, it was a patched-up Scotland team, and this second game in 4 days was a step too far. The SFA's decision to debut a third choice maroon strip for this game may have had a small psychological effect, too, especially as Scotland could have played in the traditional dark blue jersey that reminds us all of fighting the English and "being a nation again".

It is absolutely critical that Scotland can field its best possible team in a month's time. And this is where the clubs can play their part - especially the Old Firm, who between them supply so many players to the national squad these days. Pray that there is no "club v country" posturing over the hamstrings of Scott Brown and Alan Hutton, and that Ferguson and Fletcher get the opportunity to get themselves match fit.

Celtic and Rangers may protest that they should only look after their best interests, and not be obliged to do Scotland any favours. Yet qualification for Euro 2008 would bring such benefits in terms of heightened prestige and profile for the Scottish game that it would have beneficial consequences for the Old Firm as well. Scottish football went through a long lean period, and next summer's competition could still herald our renewed strength. If the two Glasgow clubs can't recognise that, they are even more myopic than many people suppose.

Scotland two results away from achieving the unthinkable

Another fine performance, another triumphant result. Scotland's 3-1 win over Ukraine has put the Eastern Europeans out of Euro 2008, and four points from the remaining two games will guarantee qualification. Alec McLeish, while always stressing the difficulty of the task, always said that "we have to believe we can qualify". Now the rest of Scotland is believing too.

McLeish also said this was his team's best performance at Hampden so far, and the home crowd probably had their best match for years too, a wall of noise coming down from the stands throughout the game. The players are thriving in this new-found confidence, and it delivered a 2-0 lead within 11 minutes. Scotland were busy and committed, Ukraine unable to settle into any sort of shape, and Kenny Miller headed in from a free kick. From another set piece, the ball fell to Lee McCulloch, in acres of space, who chipped in a delightful effort to the far corner.

Ukraine came back into it, Shevchenko bagged a goal before half-time, and Scotland had to dig deep once again to prevent another score. But then James McFadden escaped his marker and scored from a breakaway to seal the points.

Georgia away is next Wednesday, hardly an easy tie, and illustration of just how tough this group is. Georgia could easily finish 6th in this group. A win there, and a draw against Italy in November will seal the job, unless Italy (or most unlikely, France) have already screwed up by then.

A massive game to finish, then. But Italy will not be relishing that trip.

Scotland enter the final straight...

"Squeaky bum time", the phrase attributed to Alex Ferguson to describe the business end of a season, is an ugly saying. But it seems to have stuck, and so here it is... squeaky bum time, as Scotland look to prevail in the home straight of Euro 2008 qualifying and reach a major tournament for the first time in a decade.

It seems unbelievable, following all the heroics of this campaign so far, that Scotland still need 7 points from their final 3 matches to guarantee a place at next summer's championship. That's pretty tough going, but a measure of the quality of this group, with 3 countries still very much in it. Scotland, Italy and France are now vying for 2 places between them, with Ukraine almost certainly out of it.

Predictions at this stage are pointless, as Scotland have confounded every expectation so far. Tomorrow's game could go either way. They could lose to Georgia on Wednesday, or beat Italy in the last game. The 2 giants of the group could get their act together just in time, or implode under pressure.

Whatever happens, it's going to be gripping.

Gallus Scotland demand to be taken seriously

What a week! An morally satisfying victory over Lithuania on Saturday was followed on Wednesday night by a stunning win in Paris that leaves Scotland as very serious contenders for Euro 2008 qualification. If the chances of participating in the first major competition since the 1998 World Cup still seemed slightly fancifal a week ago, they now look very, very real.

Lithuania were eventually dispatched with goals from Kris Boyd, Stephen McManus and James McFadden, but not before Lithuania had scored a penalty to level the match at 1-1. Lithuania means mostly one thing to Scottish fans these days - it's the country which runs Hearts - and suitably it was a Hearts player, Saulius Mikoliunas, who conned the referee into giving the penalty, by falling over Darren Fletcher's non-challenge. Typically, this injustice rattled Scotland, but made the eventual win all the sweeter.

Not half as sweet as beating France, though. Scotland are now top of the group on 21 points. With Italy on 20 and France on 19, the job is far from complete, but the fact that Ukraine are now out of the picture on 13 is measure of just what Scotland have achieved so far. Most pundits predicted us finishing no higher than 4th.

Of course, beating France was no easy matter, with Scotland desperately hanging on at times against wave after wave of attack. But, as at Hampden last October, France could not find a way through. Scotland held their own in midfield, forcing their opponents to attack from the flanks, and then threw everything in the way of the ball. When all else failed, Craig Gordon furthered his own claim as one of the best emerging goalkeepers in the world with a number of breathtaking saves. Having given themselves a platform, McFadden then popped up to score the only goal of the game.

Last month, McLeish had talked about the gallus nature of players like McFadden and Scott Brown - a self-confidence, even cockiness, in their natures that allows them to ignore the natural order of things and refuse to accept that anyone is better than them. But the suspicion was that he was really talking about himself, and the attitude and belief now bursting out of the Scotland team. They may line up in a defensive 4-5-1 formation against the big teams in this group, but there is no sense of inferiority amongst the players once on the park.

Scotland now believe they can qualify for Euro 2008. Cocky? Maybe. But France and Italy now know they have a real fight on their hands.

Scotland the modern European nation

First Minister Alec Salmond unveiled his own plan for turning Scotland into a modern European nation this week - the launch of a "national conversation" which he hopes will have people discussing what a good idea it would be to become an independent country again.

He might have found, though, that many minds were instead contemplating the chances of Scotland achieving something of note in European football this season. Crunch time for the Euro 2008 qualifiers is still a little way off, but this week the clubs were back in action.

Dunfermline begin their UEFA Cup campaign on Thursday, but let's be honest - this adventure will be diversion from their campaign to get back into the SPL this season, and little more. The real stories this week concerned the Old Firm in the Champions League qualifiers.

Much has been said about the high stakes Rangers are playing for. Last season they could only look on with envy as Celtic prospered in the Champions League. Rangers participation in the Uefa Cup left them at least £10m worse off, making this summer's crucial squad rebuilding much more difficult. To their credit, Rangers have brought in a lot of players, despite the high profile targets that got away, such as Steven Naismith and Scott Brown. But this has raised the stakes even further... Rangers are spending money they don't have, and if they fail to make it to the group stages this year, the financial consequences will be dire.

The good news is that they have a 1 goal lead following the first leg against Red Star Belgrade, who didn't really look that threatening. The bad news is that Rangers were pretty poor, and the game could easily have finished goalless were it not for Nacho Novo's late, late intervention.

This is, perhaps, to be expected. Rangers are trying to integrate a lot of new players, and an unbalanced squad mean injuries are particularly destabilising - Kris Broadfoot had to fill in at left-back on Tuesday, and not surprisingly looked nervous and unsure of himself. If they can just get through the second leg unscathed, Ibrox will be hugely relieved.

Celtic have had a pretty lacklustre start to the season, but a 1-1 draw against Spartak Moscow on Wednesday was a great result. They will fancy their chances back in Glasgow for the return leg, but need to be wary.

Scotland opts for short-term fix as Alex McLeish is confirmed as the new boss

Alex McLeish was finally unveiled as the new Scotland manager at a press conference yesterday. He was offered the job a week ago, but the official announcement was held up by negotiations over the length of the contract, with McLeish wanting a deal that lasted until the summer of 2010. He got his way, and yesterday insisted that he intended to honour the contract in full. So, it seems he will be in post for the next 3 ½ years – which might just be a year past his sell-by date.

To be fair to the Scottish Football Association, they have got their first choice for the role. Shocked by the sudden defection of Walter Smith to Rangers, they needed someone who could offer continuity, and hopefully build on the work Smith did to restore the pride of the national team after the humiliation of the Berti Vogts reign. That meant appointing someone Scottish, and with the SFA keen not to pay compensation to prise their chosen man out of a contract somewhere else, the shortlist of suitable candidates was just that – short.

On that basis, McLeish is the obvious choice. Not only is he Scottish, he is an ex-international, having won 77 caps for his country. He also had the best managerial record of any of the candidates on offer, and – crucially – was available.

Yet that last point is instructive. For all his achievements –in particular winning 7 trophies in 4 ½ years at Rangers – his abilities are not universally admired. By his own admission, he had wanted to get back into club management after leaving Ibrox, but the job offers just weren’t forthcoming. Alex McLeish has managed 3 clubs so far in his career, and at each the pattern has been the same – initial success, followed by disillusionment. Motherwell finished as runners-up to Rangers in his first season, before slipping towards the other end of the table by the time he left. At Hibs, he created a swash-buckling, attacking team, that then got stuck in a rut before he left for Rangers. In his first full season there, he won the title back from Martin O’Neill’s Celtic, and won plenty more trophies, but his last season was deeply disappointing.

McLeish is a good man manager and motivator, but a sometimes naïve tactician. Once his initial galvinising affect on a squad wears off, he has been found wanting in setting his team up to get results week-in week-out. And his record in the transfer market is patchy.

It’s possible that these weaknesses won’t matter. The tactics of the Scotland team have been broadly defined by his predecessor, and McLeish has already said that he intends to follow that blueprint. Roughly, it means 4-4-2 against weaker teams, and 5-4-1 against the big boys, underpinned by disciplined organisation and a high work-rate. It’s not pretty, but undeniably effective.

Meanwhile, his transfer record has less relevance in the international context (although an eye for a player, and how they can fit into the team, would be useful). His broader management experience, plus his history as an Aberdeen player, will hopefully mean he is willing to look beyond the obvious Old Firm squad lists, and pick players from other Scottish clubs who can do a job for the national side. With a Scotland B fixture against Finland on 7th February, he has an early opportunity to reveal his thoughts on players on the fringes of the squad.

What is certain, though, is that Scotland needs a fundamental review in terms of its approach to sport, the national game included. There are more young players coming through than there were 5 years ago, although that is down mostly to the serendipitous fall-out from the collapse in SPL TV revenue, which forced clubs to hive off the imports on high wages and promote kids into the first team. There is still a shocking lack of decent facilities across Scotland, and not enough children playing football (or any sport). Of course, it’s not the national manager’s job to rethink Scottish sport from the ground up, but they can prove a powerful advocate for change if they are committed and passionate enough to influence the powers that be. Gordon Strachan identified this as a critical issue when he was in the running to succeed Berti Vogts. There is no indication that McLeish sees his remit as extending this far.

Still in his 40s, there is no doubt that McLeish sees the Scotland job as a stepping stone – make it to Euro 2008, and those lucrative job offers would surely start coming in again. And that might just be the right time for him and Scotland to part company.