After missing out on Euro 2008, can Scotland make it to the next World Cup?

Football doesn't allow much time to dwell and reflect anymore. Scotland may have only played their last Euro 2008 qualifying game a week ago, but already it's time to forget about the disappointment of that game and look ahead. Club supporters are already immersed in the domestic season again, while today's 2010 World Cup qualifying draw gives a chance to focus on the next challenge.

It's hardly an easy draw, but it could have been worse. Scotland are in the only group with 5 members instead of six, and will face Holland, Norway, Iceland and Macedonia. The route to qualification goes like this - secure the maximum 12 points against the two weakest nations, share the points with Holland, and two wins against Norway should do the job. Easy, eh?!

Of course, what no one yet knows is whether Alec McLeish will still be in charge of the side. The Scottish Football Association want him to stay, not surprising given that he's got Scotland playing their best football for a decade. But the rumours that he's about to jump into the vacancy at Birmingham are getting stronger by the hour.

Is fighting for Premiership survival, in a club with a large "For Sale" sign around its neck, really a more attractive job than the chance to take your nation to its first major tournament for 12 years? Birmingham probably wouldn't be McLeish's first choice, but he was chastened by his experience last year, when he spent 6 months waiting for the phone to ring. McLeish felt that his achievements at Rangers earnt him a crack at a job in the English Premiership, but clubs like Middlesborough and Charlton preferred to look elsewhere.

There's also the small question of money. The SFA will offer improved terms on his current £350k a year contract, but any Birmingham offer will be much more than that. McLeish may feel that this is his only chance to crack the lucrative English managerial marketplace, and if so he will be gone within a week.

Let's face it, it's probably better than leaving half-way through a qualifying campaign, as Walter Smith did. And, impressive though his time in charge has been, this might be as good as it gets for McLeish as Scotland manager. As discussed on this blog in January, McLeish's managerial career has thus far followed a familiar patttern - excellent first year, followed by decline. Maybe it's for the best if he goes now.

Who to replace him? Well, the rank awfulness of the Berti Vogts era means the SFA will not appoint a foreign coach again for a long time. So the shortlist will be exclusively Scottish. This is how it will happen.

Gordon Strachan has already been rejected for the job once and won't put himself forward again. There's as much chance of David Moyes being interested as Alex Ferguson. Billy Davies could be out of a job soon but hasn't done enough to convince yet. Craig Levein and John Collins are both strong candidates, but will probably not want to leave their clubs at this time.

That leaves Jim Jefferies, the Kilmarnock manager, and Jimmy Calderwood at Aberdeen. Both have been in their jobs for a while, both are experienced, and they both might feel that they have taken their current clubs as far as they can. Calderwood is currently in talks about extending his contract at Aberdeen, but is understood to be reluctant to do so without the promise of more money for his squad. Money that isn't going to be made available. He's looking increasingly frustrated at Pittodrie, and may decide that the Scotland job would be a welcome fresh challenge.

So, there we go... 2 real candidates, both with decent records in the Scottish game but nothing like the record of achievement McLeish could point to. Calderwood looks the choice, though... he has some experience of the UEFA Cup, and has worked in Holland before. That should be enough to sway the decision his way.